It is so obvious, there is no other conclusion.UPdated delegate numbers.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R
Trump won 37% of votes-7,548,429 and -—> 696 delegates.
Cruz won 27% of votes- 5,484,494 and —-> 424 delegates.
The race is >60% over. Remaining state delegates, only 906 are available as pledged (97 are softies- free agents) The goal is 1237 Hard pledged delegates.
Trump must win 59% or 541/906 delegates.
He has won 11 or 12 Majority delegations (Rule 40).
Trump can afford to lose 365 delegates.
Ted must win 90% or 813/906 delegates.
Ted must win 4 more Majority state delegations (Rule 40).
Ted can give up no more than 93 future delegates.
Given what we know, Trumps road to victory is quite possible and probable.
Ted’s path to winning is like that of a tight rope walker, but less fun to watch.
If Ted loses Arizona (WTA) with 58 delegates, then he must win 98% of the remaining delegates to make it to 1237.
Cruz is hurt even more by the presence of Kasich. Cruz will stay in until the convention because he wants to put on a big show. He keeps saying he is the only one who can beat Trump, but he is not beating Trump very much. The behavior of the establishment against seems to be helping Trump. The behavior of the media seems to be helping Trump.
The Dems. will help Trump win if Hillary is nominated.
Cruz could win a plurality of delegates.