Yes, the big question is what happens if Kasich and Rubio drop out. I would imagine that a significant percentage of those supporters would gravitte to Cruz, but probably not all. There is the possible phenomenon of bandwagon voting. Still, a big variable.
2nd Choice polling shows Rubio/Kaisch voters go 2/3rds Cruz 1/3 Trump. Using that as a measuring stick can give you an ability to measure how Rubio/Kaisch exiting the race effect Trump/Cruz.
If that measurement is correct, and the polling in FL is correct, Trump still wins FL.