If I may question your numbers, the 120,000 caucus goers included party-switchers.
And, that year, the Dem candidate was uncontested -- while this year it will be hotly contested.
Consequently, there will likely be fewer cross-overs than in the past.
Fair point. Though I suspect there will be significant party switchers this year, of the “Reagan/Trump Democrat” variety at least according to some polling information. (Rush has spoken of this group numerous times recently).