lol, how nice
they Picked the Average of 5 polls where they didn’t have to worry about a nail-biter at the 10th-11th cutoff points. Notice Kasich is almost 1.5% ahead of Perry. I’m sure if they used other polls that margin would have been far less.
So to summarize:
Despite #1’s ability to go after RINOs (after all he’s one of them at best), instead of having a REAL conservative in the middle podium, we get stuck with this blowhard who tosses out a few obvious statements and pretends like he’s been partying with the Tea Party since it began. Hell, before long he’ll be claiming he invented the Tea Party, just like Al Gore invented the internet. Trump mania is over-rated and unnecessary, because....
#2 makes me wanna go #2. Seriously, the only reason Trump got in this race was because he can see like everyone else that Jebbers is extremely vulnerable because Jebbers sucks worse at debating than Joe Biden. Jebbers is not going to have that creepy opponent staredown like Romney used, it will be more of the deer in the headlights stuplifying look. Once this becomes obvious that Bush sucks on a debate stage, it will become clear that Trump’s entrance wasn’t necessary because any conservative with a pulse, could out-debate Jeb and make him look dumber than dumb. All Trump does is deny the other conservatives a chance to go after Bush because by the time Trump gets done with Bush, the others will feel generally sorry for Bush and lay off because it won’t be pretty. But it would be just as bad if a Walker or Cruz was delivering the beating, different methods, but any of them will work because like we just pointed out, Bush sucks.
#3 Walker’s gonna stand there and pray (I mean pray) that Trump lays a hammer on Bush and he’ll just try to play it safe. Now if Trump comes to the debate handing out “dum-dum lolipops”, he might have to change that strategy up a bit. I don’t think Trump’s going to go after Walker this early, as Walker is a more formidable debater than Bush and if he fires off, I suspect (or expect) Walker to be prepared for it. Essentially, Walker will proceed with caution and let Trump hang Bush, but I don’t think Walker will participate in the beating unless it becomes obvious to join in or become irrelevant.
#4 The Huckster’s biggest concern is getting more folsky stories and one-liners in that a more memorable than the Donald’s. Tall task. I DO think if Walker doesn’t join in on Trump’s assault of Bush that the Huckster will, it’ll become a battle of who can deliver the best 1-liner while beating up on Jebbers. I don’t see Huckster going after the Senators or others, at least not yet.
#5 Carson could be in trouble in this debate. Depending on how much the Donald dominates Bush and the Huckster fighting for 1-liners, his soft spoken nature might leave him irrelevant. I just don’t see him attacking anyone else on stage. If you’re going to do that and just stay on your message and talking points, then you’d better be as good a communicator and debater as...
#6 Cruz will deliver substance to every question. Many who watch him all the time will see the bulk of his answers come from stump speeches which might get a little redundant, but there the right answers to the questions being asked. I don’t see him attacking anyone. I see him defending another if they are unfairly attacked, even if it turns out to be Jebbers depending on the issue. Cruz is about truth and he’s going to give it straight. If he points out differences with other candidates, he’ll say so. People who haven’t seen his stump speeches will remember his answers.
#7 Rubio is going to be in a more difficult position than Walker. Rubio is more likely to come to Jebbers defense and that could risk him getting into it with the Donald. Or Rubio could try to steal the show once Bush is weakened. I don’t see it working because when you see Rubio and Cruz on stage together, you remember Cruz. There’s clearly a difference and Marco knows his skills are inferior to Ted’s.
#8 Paul - Rand who? Is he going to cite the same damn poll from like 5 months ago showing him beating Hillary? I don’t see a strategy for him here without attacking. He’s just dull.
#9 Christie - Will the debate last the full 2 hours? The most intensive exchange possible could be one between Christie and Trump which could cause the whole thing to explode. I could see Christie saying to Donald “shut the hell up” and Trump firing back “you don’t belong on this stage, you belong in one of my personal gyms”. Oh yeah, if there’s an ugly-exchange warning, it’s between these 2 personalities. If it happens, I see Christie walking off thinking that will buy him some points. Do other candidates follow? No, but if it happens some one (Carson) will jump in and say “Can we get back to discussing the real issues that matter?”
10 Kasich - Huntsman 2.0? He’s going to have a strategy like Walker in the debate, not sure if it works out.
My Predictions:
1. Cruz Wins as the Evangelicals, Economic, Domestic, and Foreign policy conservatives see he covers all their bases.
2. Trump attacks Bush successfully but struggles on substance actually answering debate questions lowering his overall performance.
3. Walker is a push, no-harm, no foul
4. The end is near for Rand Paul
5. Jeb Bush is significantly weakened. Walker moves into a solid 2nd and Cruz ties Bush for 3rd in future polls. Trump falls back slightly (or more) but probably remains in 1st.
Chart 1 is the 10 most recent polls and lists the Cruz, Carson and Huckabee polling results for each of these polls.
Chart 2 is my calculation of the averages from the polls that Fox News selected. Note that Quinnipiac is not one of the 5 most recent polls. It is 6th. Note also that my calculation shows Carson and Cruz tied at 5.8. Fox announced a average of 5.4 for Cruz. Maybe they have non-rounded off figures from the 5 pollsters. I don't know.
Chart 3 shows the result if they really did what they promised and used the 5 most recent polls. A three way tie between Cruz, Carson and Huckabee at 6.6.
Question for Fox News or any Freeper: Why did Fox News substitute Quinnipiac for the NBC-WSJ poll. Could it be that NBC-WSJ is not a reputable polling organization? Really?
Fox News cheated to give the Huskster and Carson a leg up and push Cruz down. IMHO
Hoping I have all the numbers correct. Anyone that sees an error - don't hesitate.
