Just a thought here, what if Trump wins most of the primaries with a plurality, but not a majority, and show up at the convention with say 40% of the delegates? Can the GOP really deny him and give it to someone with half as many delegates and votes? Would they dare risk him running 3rd party? Or nominate him and then do everything they can to undermine him? I suspect most of the GOP-e would rather see Hillary president than Trump.
If Trump makes is all the way to the GOPe convention it would be far too late for him to run “third party” or as an independent. Too many sore loser laws in too many states, and far too many elapsed petition deadlines.
I think obama will persuade the majority of electors to vote for him. december 14th i think.