Nate Silver: No, the Democrats don’t have a lock on an Electoral College majority

Hot Air ^ | May 12, 2015 | Noah Rothman

[re_nortex]

Your FR “About” page is a must read for all true Patriots. Very well done sir! And you’re obviously a lot smarter than that low-life leftist, Nate Silver.

[MinorityRepublican]

What about Vermont? It must be 99% White there. Or how about Oregon? Perhaps 90% White.

[Lurkinanloomin]

That’s a tougher one to quantify.
My guess is the total number of fraudulently documented foreigners is over 30 million, not the 11 million they like to lie about. Hard to know how many are fraudulently registered to vote.

I hope it’s not too many :)

[Lurkinanloomin]

Put Rubio on the ticket and you lose my vote.

Completely untrustworthy after scheming with Schumer against the citizens.

[Oliviaforever]

“I don’t get what’s so impressive about him. He predicted a handful of swing states. Big whoop. “

In 2012 Nate Silver was only able to predict 50 of 50 states for President and a lowly 31 of 33 US Senate races.

[Norm Lenhart]

I could force myself to accepting Walker as VP. Rubio? I dunno. I’d have to do some extreme math/soul searching on that one. He is garbage and proved it with his collaboration. He did it before, he’s solid GOPe and he WILL do it again.

[Norm Lenhart]

Vermont is California with cows and maple syrup.

[Organic Panic]

It will come down to how much vote fraud the democrats can get away with.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Walker as VP would be acceptable. He’s been talking to Jeff Sessions and gotten up to speed on immigration.

Rubio, Bush, Huckabee, Perry or any other cheap labor importer as VP is a deal breaker, even with Ted Cruz at the top of the ticket.

I’m expecting the RNC to work their magic and nominate Jebster. They owe the Cheap Labor Express an amnesty candidate.

Jebster vs Hillary = lowest turnout election ever.

[Norm Lenhart]

I’d rather see President Hillary of that match-up. that way we can get the collapse over with in a couple months instead of several Either way it happens within a year.

[Shadow44]

This premise also is that minorities are going to come out again in 2016 like they did for Obama.

Anybody think the black community and latinos are gaga for Hillary?

[jocon307]

“But Clinton is no sort of lock...”

Silver is right about this. She’s doing a far worse job this time than she did in ‘08.

And I actually heard the snarky girl on the Sirius POTUS channel describe the current Republican field (except for Bush, whom she was criticizing) as being filled with new and interesting candidates. She might just as well have been speaking about Hillary too, and I think she’d be the first to admit that, except for maybe the “woman president” angle.

Of course she’ll pull the lever for “D”, but still I was pleasantly surprised to hear her remark.

I’m sorry but Hillary and Jeb give old hats a bad name.

[Nifster]

and yet completely right on 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014 in the US

[Nifster]

He may well be ‘for the rat’ but his analytics have proven to be accurate. He has been much better than Sabado or Rove or any of a dozen others

[Wayne07]

I think we need to worry a lot about Virginia and Colorado. in 2014, a huge republican victory year, we lose the governor’s race in Colorado, and the Senate in Virginia, and we lost the Governor’s race in Virginia in 2013. A republican can win those states, but they will need to be a particularly compelling candidate.

[dowcaet]

His days of being the great guru predictor of things are over. Go back to doing sports Nate.

[nathanbedford]

Demographics in America have so altered the electoral college map that any strategy to put a Republican in the White House faces daunting odds. The effect of Nathan Bedford's first Maxim of American politics:

All politics in America is not local but ultimately racial.

Posters on this thread and conservative pundits on the radio blandly assure us that the problem in losing the popular vote in four of the last five presidential elections is that we have failed to run a red-blooded conservative causing the conservative base to stay at home. These assurances are worth nothing. Equally useless are assurances that Nate silver is a has been. The question is where are the data?

The data in Ohio, for example, are not at all clear that the loss was due to Romney being unable to excite the conservative base. It is apparently equally likely that Romney's cyber game and ground game were so pathetically inadequate that he was simply swamped, a real indictment of someone running as a manager and a turnaround artist at that. Michael Barone has published on this problem and even he is not clear about the root of the problem for Republicans.

I support the most conservative electable Republican and have supported Ted Cruz for quite some time. I would be content with Scott Walker but my enthusiasm falls off radically thereafter. I argue for a very conservative candidate not by assuring desperate conservatives that the nominating a conservative is a sure path to victory-it is not because media will see to that-but John Boehner and Mitch McConnell have taught me that electing Rinos is at best masturbatory, it might feel good but it avails nothing.

If one accepts that the Republic is marching headlong toward the cliff, the result of an election between Democrats and Rinos means only that a light or a heavy foot has been put on the accelerator but the breaks will be left untouched. We either save the Republic or we descend into chaos and tyranny and the only way to save the Republic is to revert to conservative constitutional values. I do not believe I exaggerate danger either to our fiscal well-being or to the ever-increasing tyranny of our government.

That necessity however is not the equivalent of inevitability. We lose elections because we run top down paid media election campaigns against a bottom-up, race-based, campaign in which the electorate has been thoroughly conditioned by institutions such as the educational establishment which are funded by the federal and state governments. The media moves in for the kill. Race is determinative. The African-American "community" is about as open to reason as the Arab Street. As to the Hispanic vote, bottom up operatives are toiling away in the barrios, Alinsky style, to achieve the same result with that demographic. These demographics are not amenable to television ads run 90 days before an election, their culture has already been set. Republicans try to re-make the culture in their own image but Democrats simply harvest the crop, often with demagoguery and always with unpaid media.

This may be the last election in which Republicans have any chance of electing a national candidate because amnesty will have rendered the prize beyond our reach.

[epluribus_2]

So long as they see her as holding the big ladle at the perpetual soup kitchen, well, yes.

[BobL]

“What about Vermont? It must be 99% White there. Or how about Oregon? Perhaps 90% White.”

Reagan did win them in the past...and I’m not so sure they’ve changed much since. They could come into play again. One thing that I don’t mention is the need for a national election effort, rather than dumping all our money into the same handful of states. If you have a national campaign, you may not win states like Washington...or you just might, but at the worst, you make them tighter, so the Dem can’t ignore them either. It will keep them off balance a lot more and one or more of those states could even end up being a surprise for us and putting us over the top. You can never be sure where your message will be received best unless you actually give people a chance to hear it.

[BobL]

“Your FR “About” page is a must read for all true Patriots. Very well done sir! And you’re obviously a lot smarter than that low-life leftist, Nate Silver.”

Thanks...though he’s actually not that far off. I’m more into specifics. Running a national election, as a Republican, means ignoring the state-by-state calculations and looking at who you need to fire up your natural base - and the Republican natural base is white voters (and by white, I also mean a decent percentage of Hispanics, and possible even a majority of Asians, if Republicans bothered to make an effort for Asians).

I am ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED that is the real fear in the Democrat Party. If they ever see the 70+ percent of the country that is the natural base of the Republican Party unifying against them (as happened throughout the South in 2014), they know they’re toast.

...and that is EXACTLY why they telling us that we need to ignore those 70+ percent of the voters and figure out ways to reach the rest (i.e., blacks and Hispanics that can’t speak English)...and that we can’t win without them. And the Dems have many people on the INSIDE doing this, which is why half (or more) of Republican ‘advisers’ wind up coming as gay. It is unreal...but Republicans not only trust these people, THEY PAY THEM too.

Cruz seems like the one candidate that has figured this out...he clearly is not listening to that bunch of ‘advisers’...if any.