[Jack Black]

Do you trust the RCP polls at this point?

Yes, poll averaging turns out to be pretty effective. They tend to average each other out.

You can weigh the polls, which 538 did.

Of course it's really state-by-state at the start, so what matters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and maybe Florida. If you are not in the top 3 one of those you have to drop out.

I'm pretty much trusting the polls that all the people under 5% will not be finishing in the top 3 in any of them, so it's only a matter of time till they drop out - or they may not get in.

Carley is a special case, she can stay in and get the VP slot, that's what she is aiming at, IMHO. Maybe Kasich too.

[SoConPubbie]

I'm pretty much trusting the polls that all the people under 5% will not be finishing in the top 3 in any of them, so it's only a matter of time till they drop out - or they may not get in.

Probably shouldn't do that this early Jack.

Cruz started at 3% when he was running for Senator and after getting the GOP Nomination, Reagan was down by 30% to Carter.

Polls are unreliable.