The problem is that you or I may be able to change our vote on in an instant but campaigns and organizations cannot. It takes many weeks for donors to move their support, for campaign organizations to hire staff, for campaigns to organize volunteers into phone banks and door to door efforts, for advertising buys to be purchased in key primary states.
We can’t assume if Walker (Cruz) drops out after New Hampshire/Iowa that Cruz (Walker) will be able to consolidate their support by South Carolina. Plus, once the primaries start, the natural urge of every candidate is to believe that if they just stay in one more round that their campaign will take off with the voters.
We’ve seen this play out over and over again. Jeb Bush will have his money, staff, and ad buys planned out by November. He will have the moderate field cleared for him. Romney is already out. Christie is in no hurry to get in. If conservatives wait until February to unite behind a single candidate, Bush will win the nomination.
Ping to J Noble