Posted on 10/20/2012 1:32:29 PM PDT by NY4Romney
The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama up 3, 47 to 44 (though that's due to rounding, it's actually only Obama up 2.6%). Now, both sides love to discredit any poll that doesn't look good for them: look at how the left is freaking out about the "outlier" of a Gallup poll. I don't do that..I've seen many polls that look bad for Romney that I actually find believable once looking at the internals. I never discredit a poll just because I don't like it - I just call it like I see it. Having said that...
The IBD/TIPP poll is absolute sh*t.
1. First, right on top, there's the sampling: 37% democrat, 30% GOP, 32% Independent. That is definitely not going to happen and they are way oversampling dems and undersampling republicans.
2. As far as sex, race, etc - there's no way to know, as the poll doesn't give any further breakdown in terms of percent of the sample. One very telling thing, however, is at the bottom of the poll, which is point number 3.
3. Look at the very last question on the poll: The 2008 vote. According to the poll, Obama wins 83% of people that voted for him in 08, and 4% of Mccain Voters. Romney wins 92% of McCain voters and 10% of Obama voters. We have actual data we can extrapolate this from:
2008 Vote: Obama: 69,456,897 McCain: 59,934,815
So.. Obama = (0.83)69,456,897 + (0.04)59,934,815 = Obama = 57,649,224 + 2,397,362 = 60,046,616 Total
Romney = (0.10)69,456,897 + (0.92)59,934,815 Romney = 6,945,689 + 55,140,029 = 62,085,718 Total
Romney: 50.8% Obama: 49.1%
So even using their skewed poll, if corrected to reality, shows Romney up by almost 2 points. And this is just based on people who voted in 2008 - if the EXACT same people who voted in 2008 voted in 2012, Romney would win...yet we all know that more Republicans who sat home in 08 are ready to go, and lots of disappointed democrats are going to be sitting home...so probably another few points for that.
Romney's going to win this. The ONLY polls that show Obama leading anywhere, even in Ohio, are extremely generous to Obama and do not reflect reality. I'm a huge worrier and knew Obama would beat McCain - I never once thought McCain had a chance. I also thought Romney had no chance up until that first debate. Now I'm completely confident of Romney's win.
But WE MUST FIGHT TO THE END! DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE OBAMA'S MACHINE! GOTV! TELL YOUR FRIENDS! VOLUNTEER! DONATE! And if we can keep this up for just TWO MORE WEEKS, we can all laugh as MSNBC cuts their stream in November 6th and DU goes offline. Imagine Chris Matthew's crying face and GO FORWARD!
Hey, go get yourself an echo chamber. You’d feel nice and settled in it. Only shallow minds are disturbed by reality.
Why are you sweating it? It's a poll.
I agree that the Democrats are probably over-sampled, but IBD is hardly a left-wing rag so I don't ascribe evil intentions to it.
Don't get all strung-out over polls. They're like newspaper endorsements. The "undecideds" are so lost in the fog that they don't even hear about them.
“I think it is a credible pollster who is using flawed and mistaken turnout assumptions. We will find out in two weeks.”
I think you’re right. There is no way for the pollsters to know everything this time around. What once was a dozen of my Democrat acquaintances switching to Romney is now dozens...in an 80% Dem town. In my granddaughter’s university, there were nine or ten brand new registered Freshmen planning to vote for Romney. That number is past fifty now. They can’t know these things are happening.
Do you even know what a troll means? It means stirring up controversy just to get attention. And yes, that makes you a troll. A noob troll at that.
Do you even know what a troll means? It means stirring up controversy just to get attention. And yes, that makes you a troll. A noob troll at that.
Do you even know what a troll means? It means stirring up controversy just to get attention. And yes, that makes you a troll. A noob troll at that.
Whatever you say. My history here more than proves my dedication to defeating Obama and this thread is only to ensure people understand that even the “worst” poll for us is actually still showing Romney leading. There is no controversy here, so calm down fool.
Then don’t join and start posting about losing days before the election!
Could you please freakin read my entire post. It’s a post about how we’re WINNING!! WTF? Did you just neglect to read it or do you have no reading comprehension skills?
Dude, it’s investors business daily, which is somewhere to e right of wsj. Nevertheless it’s is a bogus poll.
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