“Am I missing anyone?
Bottom line, no primary challenge to Barry has a realistic chance of succeeding if he’s determined to keep the Oval Office.”
That’s what they said before Senator Eugene McCarthy challenged President Johnson in 1967.
Johnson wasn't. He said "to hell with it" after his bad primary showing in New Hampshire and left the field. Not that it did McCarthy any good because Humphrey got the nod.
The reality is closer to what happened in 1976 when Reagan challenged Ford and then four years later when Kennedy challenged Carter.
I have been very interested in Reagan's 1976 challenge because I have been hypothesizing what the world might look like today if Reagan had defeated Ford. No Iranian revolution, for one thing, but I digress...
For all that he was a hero, Ford was also as dull as dishwater, had microscopically thin support outside of Michigan and was burdened with the odium (to the left) of having pardoned Nixon and (to the right) of signing the Helsinki Accords. He did however, have the Big Blue Bird, all the trappings of office and the other advantages that incumbants enjoy.
But therein lies my point. The office itself conveys enormous advantages and gravitas on the incumbent that make it very unlikely that Obama would lose the nomination if he decides to fight for it down to the convention.
He might not. I could easily see him doing a "Johnson" and bailing out early.