Here’s how Cain could get the nomination:
-Huck doesn’t run - CONFIRMED
-Palin doesn’t run (more likely than many care to admit)
-Trump doesn’t run (??????)
-Newt, Daniels, and Romney are in, along with Crazy Uncle Ron Paul and Herman Cain, plus Santorum and Pawlenty and a few others nobody cares about.
Romney with his recent comments on healthcare doesn’t have the strength he expects, and basically runs neck and neck with Newt. Pawlenty and Daniels are behind the two, but the RINO/establishment vote basically splits between the four of them, all four failing to break 12% as a result.
Those looking for “outsider” experience go mostly to Cain. Social conservatives go to Santorum initially, but Santorum makes a surprisingly weak showing in Iowa and drops out.
Cain picks up most SoCons by default with Huck, Santorum, and Palin out of the race. Deficit hawks split between Cain and Crazy Uncle Ron.
Those looking for business savvy go 50/50 to Romney and Cain, but not enough to give Mitt the win. Cain places 2nd in Iowa, second in NH and first in SC.
Cain wins nomination.
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MR. CAIN VS THE STAIN!
Two good speakers....one from the heart the head and experience....the other from whatever his teleprompter tells him.
Extraordinary theater!
Looking at your analysis, I think 2012 may be the reverse of 2008.
In 2008, the conservatives split their vote, allowing the RINO/establishment candiate to win.
This time around, it looks like the establishment candidates may split their vote, and the coonservative/tea-partiers may coalese behind a single candidate.
From your keyboard to God's ears!