[justiceseeker93]

Obama got 78% of the Jewish Vote in 2008 and I'd predict this time about 70%.

As I have stated before, that 78% figure is in all likelihood an overestimate. It's difficult to measure "the Jewish vote" because of numerous inherent problems in accurately sampling Jewish voters. Then, too, people who do these studies are almost invariably Democrats and build in their own personal biases. The intuitive guess here is that the number for Obama was no higher than 70% in 2008 and he will be very fortunate to get to 60% of "the Jewish vote" if he runs again next year.

Membership in the RJC (Republican Jewish Coalition) is on a steady upward trend, which I think is a rough indicator of the direction in which things are heading - changing slowly.

[ExTexasRedhead]

I don’t think the Wannabe Dictator will get 70% of the Jewish vote. I’m hoping that Bibi will put the heat on the Muslim Messiah.

The GOP needs to find the spine and guts to expose the Wannabe Dictator’s anti-semitic views and his obvious desire to destroy Israel. The Muslim Messiah has handed Egypt over to Iran and he’s bungled everything in the Middle East.

[Clintonfatigued]

“As I have stated before, that 78% figure is in all likelihood an overestimate.”

I share that belief. IMHO, Obama’s share of the Jewish-American vote was 70% at best, probably a little less than that. I think that Republicans have an opportunity to win a bigger share next year.

[truthguy]

Just look at the voting totals in west Los Angeles, parts of New York and Miami. That gives you a rough indication. Plus this is the number that Dennis Prager uses. I cannot speak for all polls and I'm not an expert on the subject except to say that modern polling is pretty sophisticated. Many on this site were still convinced McCain had a chance until Nov 3, 2008. Anecdotally, every Jewish person I know voted for Obama. That's of course every Jewish person I know well enough to know how they voted. That's about 20 to 0. Anecdotal evidence is risky but when it's 20 to 0, that tells you something.

[ChicagoHebrew]

As I have stated before, that 78% figure is in all likelihood an overestimate. It's difficult to measure "the Jewish vote" because of numerous inherent problems in accurately sampling Jewish voters. Then, too, people who do these studies are almost invariably Democrats and build in their own personal biases. The intuitive guess here is that the number for Obama was no higher than 70% in 2008 and he will be very fortunate to get to 60% of "the Jewish vote" if he runs again next year.

I tend to agree. These surveys are all based on exit polling data, not actual votes. Two kinds of Jews are heavily Republican: Orthodox Jews, and recent (1970s-1990s) Russian immigrants. Together, they are about 25% of the Jewish population. But they are heavily, heavily concentrated into a few tightly packed neighborhoods and polling places. If the exit pollers don't visit those neighborhoods, these Jews don't get counted in the data.