You would be surprised.
” Reagan was trailing Carter by double digits going into their first debate. That debate performance - which all the polls clearly gave to Reagan, was his campaign's turning point. He took the lead from Carter after the second debate, and never looked back.”
You left out the bit about American hostages that Iran was holding captive for staggering 444 days, the disastrous attempted rescue of the hostages by Carter, the constant unrelenting mocking and ridicule from the Ayatollah Khomeini, which ate away at Carter's poll numbers.
“You might also not remember that Kerry was leading Bush in the polls up until the October 30, 2004 OBL tape was released”
Ummmmm.. no.
Bush and Kerry switched leads throughout 2004, long before the debates.
The fact of the matter is that despite a resounding win by Kerry in the debates(according to this CNN poll), Kerry still lost.
So much for your “debate” trumps everything spiel. It just doesn't. By contrast, after Sarah Palin’s speech at the RNC, McCain/Plain shot ahead of 0bama/Biden in the polls.
Operation Eagle Claw happened in the spring of 1980 - long before the debates. It's just a record of fact that Carter enjoyed a comfortable lead going into the 1980 Presidential Debates, and had a few point lead going into the last debate. You might remember that Reagan was holding out on the second debate because Carter wanted to exclude Anderson. But, with Reagan trailing in the polls, he acquiesced to Carter's demands and Anderson was excluded.
Reagan crushed Carter in that second debate turning a close race into a blowout for Reagan. It was the debates, more than anything else that won the race for Reagan.
"Bush and Kerry switched leads throughout 2004, long before the debates."
No once said it didn't. What I said was Kerry was leading Bush - outside the margin of error - up until such a time that the OBL tape came out. IOW, the Kerry's debate performance helped him and hurt Bush.