DUMP
on
DAVIS!
BUMP!
Posted on 11/05/2002 10:57:19 AM PST by gubamyster
November 5, 2002, 11:55 a.m.
By Mark Joseph
Bill Simon, Republican candidate for California governor, has been written off as a sure loser by most political observers. But it's not the first time Simon has been underestimated. Running in the Republican primary against two established politicians, two-term Los Angeles mayor Dick Riordan and Secretary Of State Bill Jones, the political neophyte Simon soundly trounced both by double digits.
Part of the credit for Simon's upset victory could be chalked up to the political mischief of Gary South, Governor Gray Davis's campaign strategist who ran ads against Riordan in the Republican primary. But that alone could not explain Simon's surge. Republican primary voters actually liked Simon and it didn't hurt that his enemies had underestimated him, but they did so at their own peril. Before they knew what had hit them, Simon had staged a come from nowhere 18-point victory over second-place finisher Riordan.
This time, too, it's clear that Davis and many political observers are underestimating Simon as well. Despite an embarrassingly inept political campaign, Simon has managed to stay in the race and give the profoundly unpopular Davis a run for his money.
Can Simon actually win? At a recent political gathering of Hollywood entertainment executives at a posh Beverly Hills hotel, guest speaker Michael Barone, author of The Almanac of American Politics, asked his audience if they thought Simon had a chance of winning. No more than ten raised their hands, the great majority going with Davis.
Still, it would be foolhardy to count Simon out. After months of lackluster commercials, Simon finally managed to connect with an ad that features a running dollar tally of what the candidate believes Davis's governorship has cost Californians. Then, the telegenic Simon closes the sale, sitting on the edge of a desk of what is clearly designed to look like a governor's office, earnestly telling voters "I'm asking for your vote. I'm Bill Simon."
Can Davis pull off a victory? Most polls have put the race in high single digits, but Davis's numbers have remained especially low for an incumbent. A poll commissioned by the California Teachers Association actually gave Simon a one-point lead with two weeks to go in the campaign, but others have shown a wider spread.
Much will hinge on turnout, and Democratic voters in particular seem especially unenthused about voting for Davis. A low turnout among traditional Democratic voters could spell trouble for Davis.
Then there is the matter of Green party candidate Peter Camejo. Davis's moderated liberalism has infuriated true believers on the left who have threatened to vote for the Green candidate, and if their numbers should approach ten percent, Davis could be in real trouble, and Simon might very well pull off the upset of the political season.
A Simon win, however unlikely, would not just be a loss for Davis. Were he to ascend to the governor's chair, Simon would immediately be a force to be reckoned with within the Republican party, having been elected without much help from the White House. While Gov. Jeb Bush has been enjoying multiple visits from the First Brother, Simon has had to largely settle for obscure Cabinet members.
Both the younger Simon and Bush destinies were probably decided by Ronald Reagan who considered and then passed over Simon's father William Simon in favor of George Herbert Walker Bush, in his quest for a running mate in 1980. Had Reagan gone with Simon the senior, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario that would have led Simon the son to the presidency and Bush the son to a Texas gubernatorial campaign.
Now, Simon the son might find himself a formidable adversary within the Republican party to the reign of the Bush family, should Simon pull off the unthinkable and defeat Davis.
Another race that might turn out differently than expected and shock the political establishment in California is the congressional campaign in California's 39th congressional district, a seat created by Democrats as a safe Hispanic seat. What the gerrymanderers didn't anticipate however, was that the Republicans would field an attractive Hispanic candidate named Tim Escobar to take on Linda Sanchez, the sister of Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez. Escobar, a devout Christian with an impressive pedigree including military service in the Gulf war and ten years as a financial adviser for Merrill Lynch, has won the support of a number of Democratic leaders in the district who like the candidate's background and object to Sanchez not being from the district.
Escobar doesn't even have the customary candidate photo with the president to his name, but may just pull off an upset anyway. If so, the president might have two elected officials from California who won without much of his help and may represent powerful and attractive independent voices within the Republican party.
— Mark Joseph is the author of The Rock & Roll Rebellion: Why People of Faith Abandoned Rock Music and Why They're Coming Back. His next book, Rock Gets Religion: How People Of Faith Are Transforming American Popular Music, will be published in summer 2003.
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Tom McClintock Rep 544,696 49.0