Seriously, you are probably right in the long term.
The UN, through their health arm WHO, is working on eventually outlawing tobacco all together. When you prohibit something that has been commonly used for centuries there will almost ALWAYS be a black market.
And yes, I am the 1tin_soldier who rode away after the people of the valley killed the rich folk in the castle and were left with a stone inscribed with the message, "Peace on Earth". I sing it to my liberal friends all the time......