Keep in mind that this is a poll of extremely unenthusiastic voters. Simon still has a chance to inject enthusiasm in his supporters; Davis does not. Also factor in the Field Poll's, uh, interesting Davis lean during this election.
In short, I don't think this poll will be indicative of turnout - although Davis desperately hopes it is.
I hope you are right.
If Simon can get in gear, and get his supporters energized, then we have a chance.
Our saving grace right now is that there is absolutely no enthusiasm in Davis' base vote for his candidacy. Indeed, talk of Davis as the 2004 presidential nominee is greeted with derision in national Democratic circles. It is possible, at long last, for Simon to get the base happy and start working on enough swing voters to surpass Davis, sometime in October, and create a sense of momentum for his candidacy.
Be Seeing You,
Chris