Whether it was the long-term exposure to news about Chang or simply Torricelli's crooked reputation (or perhaps a combination thereof) that caused his numbers to dive matters little, IMHO. His re-elect numbers were weak well before he was admonished. Yet I was still hearing from "everyone" how Torch couldn't be beaten. The official reprimand simply sped Forrester into a lead more quickly than I would have anticipated. (I figured the Inouye and the Dems would stall that until after the election.)
I recently saw Torch's latest attack ad against Forrester. He's painting him as an "extremist" on gun laws, prescription drugs, etc. One scene in it has Torch talking to police while the narrator talks about gun laws. Whoever made that commercial should be fired. Given Torch's problems, what do you think most voters think of when they see Torch talking to cops.
I'm actually starting to think "Bobbie Walnuts" might lose, but don't underestimate him, he's a vicious campaigner and will pull no punches. This one's going to be close, real close. I really think if Forrester wins it may have something to do with the "conservitazitation" of North Jersey voters after 9/11