I'm suprised that Davis has 52% at this point.Well, I'm glad that surprises you, because the highest Davis has achieved in any of the 11 polls I've seen is 45%. Pretty awesome numbers for an incumbent!!
And, no, I haven't seen Davis' attack ads, though I've ready plenty about them. But Davis has no credibility. Yes, he'll undoubtedly swing some people with the ads, but a lot will be unlikely to vote. And he's also driving his own pathetic negatives up with the ads. Maybe next Davis can get Bill Clinton to do a TV ad questioning Simon's ethics!
I agree that many of the people that would be swayed by the ads aren't likely to vote anyway. My guess is that the outcome will be somthing like Davis 45 , Simon 40 , others 15%.
I also think that Bush will help Simon but not very convincingly because of the financial scandal issue that Bush needs to be sensative about. He isn't going to want to be seen as too chummy with Simon but he will apear on behalf of the Republican party and raise some money for Simon that way.