The one thing that is not "fixable" is the candidate himself. He's going down Gophack, get used to it. You, of all people, surprise me. You love to look at numbers. Why would you dismiss so many polls showing Simon ahead? I'm not saying Simon will win, but I darned sure think he can. Davis' re-elect numbers are horrible!
It is a prediction that is not based on current polls. It is based on projecting forward Simon's past personal performance, in debates and otherwise. Like any prediction, it could be wrong.