Replies

Poobah: "Four MILLION conservatives did not vote, or voted third-party, or voted for GORE on 11/7/2000.
Lazamataz: "In attempting to authenticate this figure..."
I was curious too. I googled and googled and could only verify that the "4 million conservative voter" figure comes from a Karl Rove sound bite. Based on that, I give it a 50/50 chance of being correct. It could also be political horsehockey. But... here was an interesting quote from an FR post of a JWR article:
"Evangelical Christians represent 26 percent of voters. In 2000, 84 percent of them voted for Bush. Had he lost just a fraction of this vote, George W. would have been one of history's also-rans."
But Here's another quote:
"Karl Rove, political guru of the Bush White House, estimated that of the religious right's white evangelical base, only 15 million of the estimated 19 million turned out to vote for the Republican candidate in 2000. Much of the remainder appears to have dropped out of the process, a development Rove tells insiders he hopes is only temporary."
And another:
"What happened to the power of the Christian right? For starters, says presidential counselor and political strategist Karl Rove, they are losing their most important lever: the ability to bring Republican voters to the polls. It is a self-induced electoral rapture that threatens Republican hopes for the future."
"If you look at the model of the electorate, Rove told pundits and policy wonks assembled at a December 2001 American Enterprise Institute gathering, and you look at the model of who voted [in the 2000 presidential election], the big discrepancy is among self-identified, white, evangelical Protestants, Pentecostals and fundamentalists. There should have been 19 million of them, and instead there were 15 million of them. The fact that 4 million stayed home has Rove worried: I think we may be seeing some return to the sidelines of some of the previously politically involved religious conservatives."
"That's bad news for George W. Bush and the party he leads, particularly as they fight to keep control of the House and regain a majority in the Senate. Between 70 and 80 percent of the 15 million voters in the 2000 presidential contest who fit the Rove demographic -- white, evangelical Protestants, Pentecostals and fundamentalists -- voted for Bush over Gore."
But Christian Conservatives aren't the only fundamentalists who have Bush's ear:
If the election of 2000 taught us anything, it taught us that the country is divided straight down the middle. Sure, the GOP may have lost the confidence of the aforementioned groups. But one group did vote for the GOP. They voted in numbers. They voted en masse. They are over 7 million strong. The majority of them, over 87% voted for then Governor of Texas George W. Bush. Many of them, about 35%, voted for the first time in the 2000 election. Almost all of them, 87-95% voted for Bush based on what their leadership recommended. Over 70,000 in Florida alone voted for Bush.
If this group had chosen not to vote for the GOP candidate, he would not be in the White House.
This group is the American Muslim community. The community is about 7-10 million strong and has agreed to vote as a bloc. The Muslim community elected Bush. Make no mistake about it. No other group or community can make this claim. The only reason that Gore is not president, is because Muslims overwhelmingly supported Bush.
To the Bush White House, this is not news. They all know it. They are catering to Muslim needs and meeting with them weekly. Did you get that? Meeting with Muslim groups on a weekly basis.
It would appear that the Bush Whithouse is trying to please everybody. I think history shows us that that is a dead end ploy that ends up pleasing nobody.

At this time, the 4 Million Conservative Voter figure appears to be an estimate by Karl Rove of the number of white, evangelical Christian voters who did not show up in 2000 - not conservatives in general -- nor did they necessarily vote third party, nor did they necessarily vote for Gore.

Poohbah, I am absolutely willing to take any additional input you have to support this figure better than it appears to be supportable now. Since, sir, you have repeatedly cited this figure over the last few days -- and said the conservative movement can be safely ignored by Bush due to the 4 million conservatives who sat home on 2000 -- I will probably ask you to back this up with something a little more concrete than an estimate from Rove on a group only loosely related to the conservative group in question.