Replies

I agree with your analysis, but you didn't address Governor Doofus's campaign warchest. He has a bazillion dollars to buy as much TV time as he wants to scare the crap out of Californians about the dangers of Simon. He could easily spend more money talking about Simon than Simon can.

Consequently, a lay-low campaign runs the risk of leaving charges unanswered and creating a very negative impression of Simon among potential supporters.

Simon can count on a lot of disaffected Davis voters moving over the Greens (commies), and that's almost as a good as a vote for Simon. But I think he's going to have to fight to win some folks over to his side as well.

The fact is, Davis is doing a good job of hanging himself, and Simon is smart to stay out of the way.

He's got to keep his base fired up, and then make a move as Davis moves left to counter the Green threat. The Greens could help the GOP out, big time. They'll pull the Dems far to the left, and it may take enough time for them to learn what we leanred in 1992 and 1996 from Perot...

If we can just hold on for a little bit, we have a chance to win big, and get the margins that will let us REALLY roll.

I wonder about this race, though, because the evidence against Davis is so clear. But I have to realize that most of the general public isn't listening and may not get much news from sources other than political commercials. If this was not so, after all, campaigns wouldn't need to raise or spend much at all. Since I watch virtually no television(*), I tend to underestimate the impact of commercials. I do listen to radio in my car, and if there's a particularly objectionable commercial, I change the station.

If you consider the people whose only political involvement is to occasionally hear TV commercials for candidates, well, in a just society, they simply wouldn't vote.

But since we're stuck with them, I'm also pretty sure they would forget anything they heard this far from the election. I don't think Davis is running any commercials at this time, is he?

Right now, Davis is doing a very good job at self-destructing, and if there's any significant Green involvement in this election, I really think he's toast regardless of the amount of money he has. He can create commercials to scare people, yes, but he can't create passion or enthusiasm. I think people will be enthusiastic about Simon and the Green, and that will swamp him.

We'll see if I'm right ...

(*) Last time I turned on my TV to do something other than watch my own video productions: September 11, 2001. All the web sites were clogged, so I couldn't get the news any other way.