Field Poll Shows Incumbent Governor Davis In Trouble

Bill Simon for Governor ^ | 4/27/02 | Staff

[Liz]

Just As Poor Among Women (43%) As Among Men (43%)
Davis is Among the Most Vulnerable Incumbent Governors in the Nation

The statewide Field Poll of only 546 self-described registered and likely voters (not proven likely voters) that is in newspapers today shows a very distorted picture of the election for Governor. While it clearly highlights that Governor Davis is in big trouble, the flawed methodology of the Field Poll shows much of the anti-Davis vote in the undecided category. Do not be distracted by the ballot test comparing Gray Davis and Bill Simon - the real news in this poll is that Gray Davis continues to languish well below 50%, a danger sign for incumbents. In fact, even according to Field, 57% of voters - who all have heard of Gray Davis - will not vote for his re-election.

-- "Davis backers viewed the new information with caution, perhaps reflecting internal Democratic polls that show the race much closer than the Field Poll suggests." (San Jose Mercury News)

-- "The Field Poll looked better for Davis than several polls by private organizations floating around Sacramento, and the governor's campaign reacted cautiously. " (San Diego Union-Tribune)

Noted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg declared earlier in the month on CNN:

-- "I don't want to argue on whether or not Gray Davis has done a good job or a bad job. I just want to look at the numbers. And the numbers say he has done a terrible job. His numbers stink. This is a guy with awful reelect numbers, also job approval. And he's losing to a guy who has enough never run for office before on a ballot test."

[Note that Rothenberg is aware of and believes the private polls showing Simon ahead]

The Field Poll's different sampling techniques yield results that stand in stark contrast to every other poll since the March 5 primary. There have been at least five professional polls taken privately since the primary election -- which show Davis in the high 30's/low 40's and have Bill Simon winning in each instance.

-- The Field Poll is different from professional campaign polls because Field calls all California residents randomly and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they are likely to vote. This samples too large a group of voters - including many voters who will never vote and have not been paying attention to the race. Most professional polls exclude these unlikely voters until they express some greater sentiment for voting. In addition, casual voters will tend to forget who the challenger is and default to undecided against an incumbent they know and dislike.

The poll further confirms suspicions that career politician and incumbent Governor Gray Davis, whose Administration has been rocked by energy, education and budget failures, continues to see his re-election prospects rejected by Californians. Governors who poll less than 50% in polls after the primary almost always lose. Despite the methodological bias in the Field Poll, it shows that we are in an excellent position to overtake Davis once our advertising campaign begins.

Davis tax attacks fail: By a margin of 51% to 44%, Californians say Simon doesn't need to make his tax returns public. 60% said Simon's refusal would have no effect on the way they vote, and more believe Simon when he says he paid substantial taxes.

Davis wedge issue attacks fail: Despite Davis' efforts to change the subject away from his failed leadership and toward divisive wedge issues, Davis suffers equally low re-election scores among both men and women. 57% percent of both sexes refuse to vote for Davis for re-election.

Every publicly released poll of likely voters shows Bill Simon leading the incumbent Governor.

-- The political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), revealed Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41% among registered voters. These results were later confirmed in an April survey by another independent poll conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research, showing Davis attracting the support of less than 38% of voters; Simon garnered the support of 44% in the poll.

-- Even organizations that traditionally favor Democrats are finding that Simon is leading. A poll of voters making the rounds in Sacramento in recent days commissioned by a large labor organization that has endorsed Governor Davis shows Simon leading Davis 41%-37%.

An incumbent posting a ballot score below 50% is considered highly vulnerable. Here are the last four public polls showing Davis in big trouble:

Public Opinion Strategies: 41% Probolsky and Associates: 38% Labor Union: 37% Field Poll: 43%

[Calvin Locke]

The number is key? The fact that this qualifier is used in describing the most important official in the state is
reason for normal people to be scared of all the rest of the people that vote.

I remember a story by a reporter to tried to contact Walter Mondale, the newly sworn-in VP of the US. None of the government
operators had him listed, let alone recognized the name. Granted, it was before enterprise-wide information systems, but still.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Oh, is that all? On the three biggest issues for voters, graydavis failed. What more do voters need to know?

Davis doesn't have a thing to worry about -- He has the "Davis Chop". When he speaks -- and he is less animated than Al "Bunyon" Gore -- Davis makes a downward, karate-style chopping motion with both hands. Really commands the audience (/sarcasm)

Seriously, the main problem for Simon will be countering Davis' desperate media blitz, funded by a $50M war chest. Could convince enough California sheeple that Davis really didn't single-handedly destroy the finances of the state in three years. He actually said in the beginning of his term "Congress' job is to implement my vision." CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT! What an arrogant fool.

Lord, please hear our prayers.

[He Rides A White Horse]

Political Correctness meets the Real World. With the usual results.