Simon Did It Right

One campaign understood and cultivated the GOP electorate. The other drove it away.

You rarely see two record-breaking performances in the same election, let alone in a contest for the same office. But it appears the Riordan campaign set a new record for largest lead lost (40 percent), while Simon's effort gets honors for largest improvement from initial polling (4 percent) to election result (49 percent).

How it happened makes fascinating politics. It's a story of a very poorly run campaign versus an effort that had a game plan and a timetable and stuck to both. It is also a story of Gray Davis' meddling. But contrary to what some in the media want to believe, that meddling was effective only because of the ineptitude of the Riordan managers.

From the start, Bill Simon's campaign knew that the California GOP - hungry as it is for victory - is still at heart a mainstream conservative entity. They also knew that while Dick Riordan was many things (and many of those laudatory), a "mainstream conservative" he was not. Early polling showed that Riordan's record repulsed a large majority of all GOP voters, not just "high propensity" voters.

Let me repeat that - it is key to debunking one myth the press and the remnant of Riordan campaign spinners are pedaling: that a small turnout gave Simon his victory. Riordan's liberal stands on social issues and his large donations to Democrats made him vulnerable across the entire Republican electorate.

Of course it was more pronounced among conservatives, but the Riordan record was a turn-off to moderates and even most self-described "liberal" Republicans. This is not rocket science. Any shade of Republican is going to look skeptically at a candidate who declares Bill Clinton the "greatest leader in the free world" and who gave $500,000 to defeat George Deukmejian. The low turnout increased Simon's victory margin, but by election day Simon beat Riordan in every turnout model - high, medium, and low - used by pollsters.

So the Simon campaign knew from the get-go that Riordan's positions and Democrat panderings were powerful issues. The remaining question were whether enough money would be available to communicate that message, and whether newcomer Simon could capture the Party's "heart and soul" - its activists.

The campaign answered both questions in the affirmative. The budget question was answered early on I suspect, with the infusion of necessary cash being predicated only on surveys showing a reasonable chance to win. The "heart and soul" question was also answered early, as Simon set about assiduously courting GOP activists, bringing many of them - mainly conservatives but also Republicans of hues across the board - into his campaign.

With that solid foundation - dollars to communicate the message and overwhelming support among the Party's "core" - the Simon campaign went about methodically executing its plan and waiting for the Riordan juggernaut to misfire. It was a short wait. However many cylinders Riordan had running, all were misfiring.

The Riordan operation resembled a bus carrying no one who knew how to get where it was supposed to go. The campaign hierarchy, filled with partisan Democrats, had no idea how to appeal to Republican primary voters. It is drilled into Democrats from their youths that Republicans, especially those terrible "right-wingers," have neither hearts nor minds - that they are idiots devoid of "compassion." So it should be no surprise that those driving the Riordan bus lacked directions for reaching GOP voters' hearts and minds or that, in the end, they came nowhere close to their destination, winning a Republican primary.

The Republicans present were, by and large, moderate to liberal malcontents, with almost as little insight into the thinking of the average GOP voter as Susan Estrich. These folks can't win Assembly primaries except in the most liberal districts; why did anyone think they could appeal to the broad range of registered Republicans?

With that lethal combination of advisors, the Riordan campaign set its initial strategy, which, from all appearances, was to insult, defame, and vilify the Republican voter base at every opportunity. If you didn't agree with Dick Riordan you were obviously anti-woman, anti-immigrant, and probably antediluvian. Riordan appeared fixated on the abortion issue and constantly harped on it. A Democrat woman friend of mine made a telling observation about two weeks before the election. She said Riordan was appearing to be not just "pro-choice", but positively "pro-abortion," and that was turning even her off.

And just in case any casual Republican missed the message that they were stupid, bigoted, and hopelessly behind the times, Riordan went out of his way to insult former Governor George Duekmejian at the GOP state convention. Keeping with the bus analogy, I'm reminded of an old Rolling Stone epithet, "we're all bozos on this bus."

With that background, entering stage left was Governor Gray Davis and his bulging campaign coffers. The conceit of the Riordan loyalists and their media megaphones is that the Davis anti-Riordan commercials swung the election to Simon. They did not. Simon had shown dramatic movement in the polls before the Davis commercials started. What the ads did was take unwitting advantage of the ultimate Riordan Achilles' heel - having nobody in charge who knew the GOP electorate.

Had a seasoned GOP hand held the Riordan steering wheel, the response to the Davis attacks could have been swift and devastating. It would have been denouncing the Democrat governor's meddling in a Republican primary, and calling upon all Republican elected officials generally, and Bill Jones and Bill Simon specifically, to join Riordan in condemning this interloper's interference.

Had that happened, both Simon and Jones would have had to agree with Riordan and denounce the Davis ads. Additionally, such a call would have given an opening for the White House or Riordan's Congressional supporters to bash Davis and rally Republicans of all stripes against the common enemy - all the while portraying Riordan as the victim of this dastardly Democrat plot. That would have focused Republican voters' attention on what we going on, and would have made Riordan the object of sympathy from these same voters every time they saw or heard the Davis spots. It never happened.

What also never happened was talking about the few orthodox Republican views Riordan actually holds. He did in fact contribute to the campaign against Rose Bird. He led and won a nasty fight with the L.A. School Board against bilingual education. And he did indeed submit eight budgets for L.A. that were balanced and contained no tax increases. Only a tone-deaf campaign brain trust would ignore these issues in favor of highlighting pro-abort, anti-gun, and pro-gay marriage stances.

But as Walter Cronkite used to say "that's the way it was." Combined with the savvy direction of Bill Simon's handlers, it produced a landslide of historic turnaround proportions March 5. The results give a pretty accurate reflection of the GOP. The two conservative candidates received 70 percent of the vote. The liberal pulled 30 percent. This is not at all out of the ordinary; it's really a "dog bites man" result for a Republican primary.

Those results were not foreordained of course, and even a month before, looked most unlikely. But Bill Simon ran a campaign that emphasized traditional Republican values in a way that neither pandered to nor insulted his audience. Dick Riordan ran a campaign that would have been considered liberal in a Democrat primary, spitting in his audience's eye at every chance. Simon won because he and his campaign did it right. Riordan lost because he and his campaign did not.

You, like many others, don't seem to understand elections in California. First, the electorate is not static. Simon doesn't need liberals to win. He needs the so-called "moderates" and "independents". Liberal Democrats will never vote for a Republican, not even Riordan (which is something the Riordan people didn't understand, either.)

In addition, Republicans and conservatives generally vote in higher propensities than Democrats. 8 short years ago, Republicans swept the state ... the demographics haven't changed that much in eight years, but Republicans have started staying home because the nominees were unappealing.

Simon must do three things to win:

1) Solidify the Republican base (he did it in the primary, and it'll be easier to keep them exciting in the general because they like him);
2) Ignore the liberal Democrats who will never ever vote for him no matter what he says or does;
3) Talk to the so-called "middle" on the issues that the most people DO care about (the economy and taxes, education, energy.)

If Simon stays on message -- which is conservative, common sense solutions to California's problems -- without angering the conservative base, he will win. The election is about DAVIS and his failed leadership ... and we need to keep it that way.

Go Simon!

Saracino hit the nail dead-on. Of course he's a movement conservative so that is to be expected.

Yep, Saracino was a leading light in YAF in California back in 1969, when he saved California YAF from the anarcho-Libertarians (who included Dana Rohrbacher, by the way, Dana has frequently demonstrated bad political judgement.) I was working in NJ YAF doing the same thing at the same time.

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles.

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles.

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register

Any shade of Republican is going to look skeptically at a candidate who declares Bill Clinton the "greatest leader in the free world" and who gave $500,000 to defeat George Deukmejian.

"Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican." Ronald Reagan.

Riordan was just too goofy and morally compromised to take seriously.

Can't say I'm weeping any tears for Riordan, but I am glad he got in the race. It gave the Republicans a focal point for energizing themselves. We're miles ahead where we would have been with Simon if this primary hadn't generated a lot of publicity.

Now, where do I get the nitty gritty information about Simon? I need his bio, his stand of the issues, and the information that the Dems will use to attack him and his side of that information.

I have to do some pre-emptive strikes in the precincts around here to help define Simon in their minds before Davis gets a chance to define Simon in the negative ads he'll be running.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.