[Nonstatist]

I think Bush has helped put some of that vote in play.

But getting back to Davis, how can he blame his decision to purchase power at a huge premium , on Wilson? Doesent the fact that Davis is trailing by 6 points now , after spending oodles in the last couple months, and with Simon being untested and unknown, raise any warning flags for you? I mean, geez.. Simon's advisers probably are as surprised about this as Davis's, IMO.

[Torie]

Ya, the long term contracts were on Davis' watch, but predicting markets is always dicey. I grant you Simon will be able to bitch slap Davis with it a bit, although at the time Davis did it, I hadn't read much predicting that spot prices would implode back down. Davis will claim he helped facilitate that. No one will understand any of it.

My prediction of the election is based on the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, as I have perceieved them, not current polls. Yes there is dissatisfaction with Davis. Maybe that will recede a bit as the economy picks up, but he is not loved, and a lot of liberals dislike him. But I don't see those folks voting for Simon, unless they want to perform some kind of coup for long term effect, and warn future Dems that a failure to hew the liberal line will be punished.