Republicans historically have won seats with registration numbers between 35-40%, while Democrats need at least 45% Democrat registration to be competitive, and 50% to be a safe Democrat seat. This is because, until the last two elections, Republicans have turned out in greater percentages than Democrats, negating the Democrat registration advantage.
This is not going to be an easy race for Simon, and I doubt anyone really thinks that it's a slam dunk. We have eight months that anything can happen. And, we can't underestimate Gray Davis' warchest and his desperate need to maintain power. The Democrats will do ANYTHING to keep power, and Simon's campaign had better be prepared for the worst in that regard.
HOWEVER, Davis is incredibly vulnerable.
Did you read the San Diego Union-Tribune article? He lost it there. "I kept the lights on, damnit, I kept the lights on! You wouldn't be able to publish your friggin' paper if it wasn't for me!" Energy IS a big issue ... because Davis has committed the taxpayers to paying above market rates for power for the next decade because of HIS INACTION at the early signs of trouble, and his PANIC after the first blackout.
Let's go to the budget. Davis turned a $12 billion surplus into a $17 billion deficit, and the non-partisan Legislative Analyst's Office said the deficit will continue for years. Davis increased spending by 37% while population grew by only 5%. Much of the increases went to welfare and other entitlement programs ... doesn't play well in the higher propensity suburbs.
If money doesn't move you, what about education? We're paying over $9,000 per kid in California and we STILL rank at or near the bottom in test scores. There is no accountability, teachers can't be fired, and overhead is high. Democrats are more concerned about making sure that kids use contraceptives and know how to get an abortion than they do teaching them how to read and right. Perhaps if they knew how to read, they could read the instructions on the contraceptives! Better, if we taught BASIC moral values, like abstinence while you're a minor (of course, we're a bunch of animals according to the Democrats so waiting until marriage is out, right?) and treat your neighbor as you want to be treated (too biblical?), maybe we wouldn't have so many young girls pregnant.
Anyway, off topic here. Sorry.
Back to Davis ... he is a failure in more than one area. Energy alone will not sink him, but his repeated failures across the board will. Davis can't avoid answering for his actions --- or inactions --- for the next eight months. He can't just talk about how "extreme" Bill Simon is. It won't fly. People just don't vote on abortion. And, those who are passionately pro-abortion will NEVER vote Republican, no matter how liberal, and those who are passionately pro-life will NEVER vote for a pro-abort. Those who are passionately pro-life vote at a higher propensity (Lungren won the "abortion vote" -- those people who vote ONLY on that issue -- 13% to 12% for Davis in 1998).
And guns isn't going to play in post-9/11 America. People WANT the right to defend themselves as guaranteed by our second amendment. The rabid gun grabbers are already liberal Democrats and they would never vote for a Republican EVEN a liberal like Riordan.
Anyway, to wrap-up ... this election is not in the bag, but Davis is vulnerable, and Simon CAN beat him by talking about the issues the majority of the voters care about ... energy, the economy and education ... as long as he also works his base for GOTV.
Go Simon!