Posted on 03/17/2002 2:56:03 AM PST by Enemy Of The State
The Pentagon has identified the danger of a blow-up in the Taiwan Strait as one of the highest-level contingencies that the US must deal with as it realigns its nuclear weapons strategies, excerpts of a secret US nuclear planning document shows.
The assessment is contained in the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) which the George W. Bush administration sent to Congress in January and its general points have only recently been leaked in press accounts.
Extensive excerpts of the review were released by GlobalSecurity.org, a policy-research organization focusing on security issues.
| "Immediate contingencies involve well-recognized current dangers. Current examples of immediate contingencies include ... a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan." |
| Pentagon's Nuclear Posture Review |
"In setting requirements for nuclear strike capabilities, distinctions can be made among the contingencies for which the United States must be prepared," the report says. "Contingencies can be categorized as immediate, potential and unexpected.
"Immediate contingencies involve well-recognized current dangers. Current examples of immediate contingencies include ... a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan," page 16 of the NPR says. Only two other such contingencies are singled out -- an Iraqi attack on Israel or its neighbors and a North Korean attack on South Korea.
China is listed in the review as one of seven countries that pose special concern for Washington as it reworks its nuclear-deterrent strategy.
"Due to the combination of China's still developing strategic objectives and its ongoing modernization of its nuclear forces, China is a country that could be involved in an immediate or potential contingency," the NPR says.
The NPR reflects the continued US strategic policy shifts since the end of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was the single overriding concern of Washington. The review recognizes that there are new threats such as so-called "rogue regimes" like Iraq and North Korea, as well as a new post-Cold War emphasis on China and such flashpoints as the Taiwan Strait.
The review also echoes the Bush administration's efforts to decide on a ballistic-missile defense strategy to replace the Cold War-era "mutually assured destruction" strategy in which each side had enough nuclear weapons to obliterate the other in case of a nuclear war, in effect making a nuclear war unthinkable and obviating the need for a missile defense system.
On ballistic-missile defense, the NPR makes some points of keen importance to Taiwan, in view of the Bush administration's apparent decision to abandon a separate Asian-theater missile-defense system that could include Taiwan.
The new missile-defense system is "layered," the NPR says, against missiles in all ranges of their flight.
"The United States seeks effective defenses against attacks by small number of longer-range missiles as wall as defenses against attacks by larger number of short- and medium- range missiles," the NPR says.
Options include a single airborne laser for test-phase missile intercepts, and a "sea based AEGIS system could be available to provide rudimentary mid-course capability against short to medium-range threats."
Other systems could include the PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability) anti-missile and anti-plane missile, which the US began deploying last year.
During the annual decision on arms sales to Taiwan last April, the Bush administration pointedly rejected Taiwan's requests for both the AEGIS sophisticated long-range anti-missile radar and missile-response management system, and the PAC-3s.
It is not clear whether the NPR envisions Washington using the AEGIS and PAC-3 as part of a US-controlled system that could be available to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack under the NPR's "immediate contingency" scenario.
The issue could take on increased importance in view of the Pentagon's decision in December to cancel the Navy Area Missile Defense Program because of severe cost overruns that ran afoul of US military procurement laws.
The Navy Area system, which would have been deployed as early as next year, could use Arleigh-Burke class AEGIS-equipped destroyers of the type Bush denied to Taiwan to shoot down missiles in the "boost phase" shortly after launch. Two AEGIS destroyers now deployed in Japan could be used for that. The system would use a naval equivalent of the land-based Patriots, the Standard-2 Block IV missile, which has a 340km range and a blast fragmentation warhead.
In testimony before Congress earlier this month, US Pacific Commander in Chief Admiral Dennis Blair expressed concerns over Taiwan's security as a result of the Navy Area cancellations.
"The recent cancellation of the Navy Missile Area missile systems built on the AEGIS technology I think is a blow in terms of our plans to be able to deploy sea-based forces quickly to the vicinity of Japan, to the vicinity of Taiwan, if ordered, to be able to handle those missiles that threaten those two locations," Blair said in response to questions at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 5.
Blair also said that he is "worried" about China's missiles that threaten Taiwan and which, "in case of conflict, would cause a lot of damage there."
..and simultaneously Saddam Hussein re-invades Kuwait...
..and simultaneously the North Koreans decide to forcibly 'reunite' with the South...
Precisely how would the U.S.--with its Clintonized military--respond?
--Boris
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