If Russia were to join up w/ China, it would be a dance where the they follow, not one where they lead...
Yup. Russia is well on its way to becoming a friendly equal with the US. It's not at all in their interest to rekindle the cold war. They have so much to benefit from being "with us", and nothing at all to benefit from being against us. There are still old line commies there who long for the glory days of the Soviet empire, but they are attriting out and have no real power. The next step for the FSU is the creation of a viable middle class, and with the various economic reforms (private property rights, including real estate and private farm land ownership), it's just a question of time. I expect to see it within our lifetime.