U.S. Gets Tough on Chavez, Will Not Back His Ouster -Bets on Chavez Won't be in Office Much Longer

yahoo.com ^ | Mar 7, 2002 3:37 PM ET | Anthony Boadle, Reuters

[Cincinatus' Wife]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has lost patience with Venezuela's populist president, Hugo Chavez, but will not back efforts to overthrow his government, a U.S. official and political analysts said on Thursday.

Venezuela watchers in Washington do not expect Chavez, who is facing emboldened and increasingly united opposition at home, to survive in power until the end of his term, or even this year.

U.S. administrations have taken a wait-and-see view since the former military coup plotter was elected with massive support in 1998, and have tolerated his anti-American rhetoric and visits to Cuba, Libya and Iraq.

Washington did not want to rock the boat or stoke nationalist sentiment in the South American country, which supplies the United States with 1.5 million barrels a day of oil and has the largest reserves outside the Middle East.

But the Bush administration adopted a tougher line after the Venezuelan leader criticized the United States for bombing innocent people in Afghanistan in its war on terrorism.

"There was a change when he attacked us for our military actions in Afghanistan. We decided that we would not let that pass," a Bush administration official told Reuters.

But he added: "We don't want Venezuelans to fall into unconstitutional temptations to reach a quick solution."

"The line that we only cared about what he does and not about what he says has clearly been exhausted," said Michael Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

In the first public criticism of Chavez by a top U.S. official, Secretary of State Colin Powell questioned his democratic values and his visits to "despotic regimes" during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Feb. 5.

The next day, CIA director George Tenet expressed concern with the buildup of discontent inside the United States' third-largest supplier of oil. "The crisis atmosphere is likely to worsen," Tenet told a Senate intelligence hearing.

CHAVEZ TIME RUNNING OUT?

In recent months, the maverick populist leader has managed to alienate most sectors of Venezuelan society, from the Catholic Church to members of the armed forces, his main bastion of support.

Political analysts in Washington believe Chavez's days are numbered, unless he drops his confrontational style and reaches out to sectors of Venezuelan society he has annoyed.

"Not too many Venezuela watchers in Washington think he is going to be there at the end of this year, though it may be a little longer," said Mark Falcoff, the Latin America specialist at the American Enterprise Institute. "He is his worst enemy. He is obviously living in a bubble."

Falling oil prices, incompetent management of the economy and corruption has fueled widespread unrest, Falcoff said.

On Tuesday, Venezuela's leading business and labor groups forged a rare alliance against Chavez, making clear they are seeking a way to force him out within the framework of the country's constitution.

Options under study are the impeachment of the president on the grounds of mental incapacity or a referendum, though under the constitution that cannot be called until January 2004.

"If Chavez can't fix the situation, he will not finish his term. The situation is really serious," the Bush administration official said. "He has enraged everyone he needs to govern."

MILITARY DIVIDED

The top U.S. priority is to maintain Venezuela's democratic institutions, with or without Chavez, and Venezuelans must decide his future for themselves, the U.S. official said.

He said, however, that the president has seriously divided the military, adding to pressures for his resignation.

The Venezuelan armed forces have had historical ties to the Pentagon and are the only Latin American air force to fly F-16 warplanes. They are not comfortable with Chavez's friendship with Cuban President Fidel Castro and his sympathies for Marxist guerrillas in Colombia, the official said.

While only a small faction of military officers are prepared to back an old-style coup d'etat against

Chavez, the majority of the armed forces are "institutionalists" and will only support a constitutional outcome, he said.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

(March 7, 2002) In Caracas, Venezuela: Venezuelan Blueprint for Democratic Govt in a Post-Chavez Era. Chavez Says Opposition Pact Will Fail--[Excerpt] Chavez, who is battling mounting political opposition to his 3-year-old rule in the world's No 4. oil exporter, dismissed a pact against him announced Tuesday by the country's leading private sector and trades union groups.

In the rare alliance, which stiffened the opposition challenge to the populist president, Venezuela's Workers' Confederation and the Fedecamaras business association presented a blueprint for democratic government in a post-Chavez era.

"Some people are now already talking about a Venezuela without Chavez," the outspoken president said sarcastically. [End Excerpt]

___________________________

(March 7, 2002) In Washington D.C.: U.S. Pressure on Cuba May Increase: Otto Reich views Castro as menace-[Excerpt] It turns out, however, that the Bush team is just getting warmed up. One reason a more assertive policy may be in the offing was the installation in January of Cuban-born Otto J. Reich as the State Department's top official for Latin America.

He joins other Cuban-Americans in key positions who, like Reich, have viewed Castro as a menace for years.

Shortly after Reich took office, the administration began a policy review of Cuba with a view toward determining Cuba's potential for damaging U.S. interests.

One issue under study, according to a senior official, is the role Washington says Cuba plays in international terrorism. Cuba is on the State Department terrorist country list, a designation based on ties Cuba maintains with other countries on the list, including Iraq, and the haven Cuba provides for foreigners linked to alleged terrorist organizations. [End Excerpt]

__________________________

(March 7, 2002) In Havana, Cuba: Cuba Dissidents Say 10,000 Sign Referendum Appeal [Excerpt] "The government is afraid of this liberating gesture, where a social vanguard is showing it has no fear. The government is afraid when the people are not afraid," he added.

Castro frequently says his one-party communist system is more democratic than the Western model and denies the existence of political prisoners or repression of freedom of expression.

The signatures, gathered by activists across the Caribbean island of 11 million inhabitants over the last year, will be presented to the National Assembly in a few weeks, once all 10,000 signatures have been checked and ratified, Paya said.

"This has never been done before, it has no precedent," he added. "It shows Cubans not only want changes, but also are ready to face the risks to show they want changes."

........ Castro again scathingly lambasted dissidents this week, in a three-hour TV speech, as nonrepresentative of the Cuban people and intent on helping Washington bring Cuba into the U.S. "empire." [End Excerpt]

[WIMom]

It is not fun posting on every thread and annoying all of you. We are volunteers and do so because we love Free Republic and want to see it continue for a long time.

Ask yourself these questions:

Where is the first place I go to on the internet to find out what's happening with politics?
Am I getting any benefit from Free Republic?
Am I learning from Free Republic?

Free Republic is not free. It costs Jim Robinson tens of thousands of dollars to keep this forum running. There are almost 80,000 registered users on Free Republic and approximately 1,000 Freepers help keep this forum running. Those who do not have the ability to donate money could help by bumping the threads once in a while. I've been in a position where the funds were low and every penny was needed to pay for frivolous things such as food. Those who do have the means should be ashamed of yourselves. You are a FReeploader. Go ahead, flame me. I don't care. I contribute to Free Republic, and I for one do not want to see this forum dead.

If everyone who registered donated one measly dollar a month, we would never have to have a fundraiser again. Thus ending the silly graphics and posts. But, it's not happening, so we will continue this annoying process until we reach our goal.

Because The Constitution Still Matters - Freepathon Thread 2

Or Mail your check to:
FreeRepublic , LLC
PO BOX 9771
FRESNO, CA 93794

To donate By Paypal:
Send PayPal direct to JimRob@psnw.com

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Bump!

[waxhaw]

While I certainly cannot claim to be a "Latin American specialist" like Mark Falcoff, I have lived in Latin American countries for 22 years... 3 of those years in Caracas from '93 to '96. Therefore I don't quite understand Falcoff's comment that the majority of the armed forces (officers) are "institutionalists" and will only support a constitutional outcome; whence did Chavez obtain his fellow coupsters when he led the coup in '91 and '92? Regarding the "historical" ties to the Pentagon, in my opinion this is more of "parasitical" tie. I personally know a Venezuelan Navy Officer who was fortunate enough to gain his commission through the U.S. Naval Academy; he absolutely loathes the U.S. and would be among the first join a communist-type coup. My impression of Venezuelans, especially the military, is that they'll follow whomever they consider a "strong man"; whatever allegiance they may have towards their nation's constitution or "institutions" is skin-deep. Just my two cent opinion.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Thanks waxhaw. I learn by getting everyone's viewpoint!