US Certifies Theft Of Russian Nuclear Material Has Occurred

by Maxim Kniazkov
Washington (AFP) Feb 23, 2002
An undetermined amount of weapons-grade nuclear material has been stolen in post-Communist Russia, heightening concerns that some of it could have ended up in the wrong hands, the US intelligence community has concluded.

The announcement comes amid warnings by top US officials that Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terrorist network have been making a concerted effort to obtain the know-how and materials to manufacture a crude nuclear or radiological device.

"We also believe that bin Laden was seeking to acquire or develop a nuclear device," Central Intelligence Agency Director George Tenet told Congress earlier this month. "Al-Qaeda may be pursuing a radioactive dispersal device -- what some call a 'dirty bomb.'"

In his testimony, the CIA director refrained from disclosing where al-Qaeda operatives could be shopping for such technology.

But the National Intelligence Council, in its annual report to Congress, made public late Friday, gave a strong warning that despite foreign assistance and its own efforts to heighten security, Russia still represents a serious nuclear proliferation risk.

"Weapons-grade and weapons-usable nuclear materials have been stolen from some Russian institutes," said the council, the collective analytical think tank for the 13 agencies that make up the US intelligence community.

"We assess that undetected smuggling has occurred, although we do not know the extent or magnitude of such thefts," the report said. "Nevertheless, we are concerned about the total amount of material that could have been diverted over the last 10 years."

A total of 23 attempts to steal fissile materials, which can be found in Russia in more than 300 buildings at over 40 locations across the country, were uncovered and thwarted by Russian authorities between 1991 and 1999, according to the document.

The problem remains how many smugglers made off with particles of plutonium or enriched uranium -- a hot commodity on the black market -- without being detected.

"Russian facilities housing nuclear materials typically receive low funding, lack trained security personnel, and do not have sufficient equipment for securely storing nuclear materials," the council said.

The documented cases of nuclear theft in Russia include the disappearance of 1.5 kilograms (3.3 pounds) of 90-percent-enriched weapons-grade uranium from the Luch Production Association in 1992.

In 1994, according to the council, three kilograms (6.6 pounds) of weapons-grade uranium were stolen in Moscow.

Four years later, there was a hair-raising incident at an unnamed nuclear facility in the Chelyabinsk region, in the Ural Mountains, where according to Viktor Yerastov, a top official at the Russian Atomic Energy Ministry, the amount stolen was "quite sufficient ... to produce an atomic bomb."

While admitting that US intelligence could not independently confirm the theft, the National Intelligence Council said the Chelyabinsk case was "of concern."

Four grams (0.14 ounces) of weapons-usable enriched uranium that "likely originated in Russia" was seized in Bulgaria.

Even sites storing nuclear weapons, which are surrounded by layers of security, cannot be seen as problem-free because of drug and discipline problems among the servicemen, and their low pay, the report said.

In May 2000, two students at a training center that prepares guards for nuclear weapons facilities were expelled because they had failed their drug tests.

That same month, the Russian Defense Ministry started using officers instead of enlisted men for guard duty while transporting nuclear warheads because of seven incidents in just one month when sentries had left their posts.

"Someone know the difference(s) between -grade and -usable?"

There are various isotopes that cannot themselves initiate chain reactions, but that can be used to boost or moderate an ongoing explosion. Tritium and reactor-grade enriched uranium, for example, both have weapon uses, but neither is useful by itself for creating a nuclear weapon.

Also, please note that just because a material is "weapons grade," that does not mean terrorists or rogue states can actually make a weapon out of it. Plutonium is relatively easy to make—there's no doubt that Iraq and North Korea both have pounds and pounds of the stuff. But it's extremely difficult to build an actual bomb out of plutonium—making a big mess is easy, but getting a true critical mass takes precision mathematics and engineering that only a handful of countries possess.

On the flip side, any college physics student could make a uranium bomb, but weapons-grade enriched uranium is extremely difficult to make. So the only "weapons-grade" material we really need to worry about is enriched uranium. But since weapons-grade uranium doesn't have very many uses, and is so difficult to make, very little of it is produced, which means there isn't much lying around to steal and it's easier to keep an eye on. Aside from the Chelyabinsk incident (the details of which are too sketchy to evaluate), no one has indicated that Russia is missing the 10-15kg of HEU required to build a nuclear device. The actual risk of terrorists setting off a true nuclear explosion is very small. The "Axis of Evil" states will be able to manage it on their own if we leave them alone for another few years, but that's about it.

That's not to say somebody equipped with a pound of plutonium couldn't make a hell of a mess, just that it wouldn't be any more devastating than, say, a few hundred tons of jet fuel or a pound of weaponized anthrax.

but getting a true critical mass takes precision mathematics and engineering that only a handful of countries possess.

Given that the Nagasaki bomb was a plutonium device the mathematics and physics involved are 57 year old technology much of which has been in the public domain for over forty years. I presume any Phd in physics could get enough information to figure out the forces involved in generating critical mass/density in a short period of time in a good library. Likewise the solutions to each of the mechanical and electrical engineering problems has been published and at least a few years back was in the public domain. Of course given the proper casing of U238 the proper mix of hydrogen isotopes and the proper medium to turn the X-Ray pressure into physical pressure one can advance to the megaton range.

Stay well - Stay safe - stay armed - yorktown

"Likewise the solutions to each of the mechanical and electrical engineering problems has been published and at least a few years back was in the public domain."

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there always is. Having the published "solution" to an engineering problem is at best just a leg up on actually solving the problem.

Frankly, anyone capable of building a lensed-implosion plutonium bomb is more than capable of refining his own plutonium—and even if he can't, he can readily acquire plutonium from Iraq or North Korea, since Hussein and Kim both have plenty and would gladly sell their own mothers for working bomb designs. So either way, theft from the former Soviet Union is a sideshow; the clear and present WMD danger is from the Axis of Evil.

Some detailed designs from the 1940's have been published in the past. No I will not give citations but the ast I heard both Inia and Pakistan had exploded nuclear devices in tests. How much farther advanced sre the engineers n those nations than the engineers in say Iran or Iraq? They pretty much all were very similarly educated. The riskis there I agree that Iraq and North Korea have probably fairly significant amoints of Plutonium and probably also have the capability to use gas centrifuges to create some highly enriched Uranium that could be detonated in a pistol type bomb (little boy). As I said previously the technology was first demonstrated in 1945. I merely am pointing out that it is a matter of time before there is another nation or group that has a fission bomb.

Stay well - Stay safe- Stay armed - Yorktown

Now that you've mentioned Tritium, ever wonder what else is in Tennessee besides Algore's legacy, organized crime, a dead license examiner (Katherine Smith), and a dead scientist who committed suicide by falling over a 5ft retaining wall on a bridge?

Tennessee Reactor to Make Tritium: (Excerpt)

Tennessee Reactor to Make Tritium
By Rachel Zoll
Associated Press Writer
Tuesday, December 22, 1998; 6:49 p.m. EST
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (AP) -- For the first time in U.S. history, the government is about to breach the long-standing wall separating civilian uses of nuclear power from military ones.
The Energy Department announced Tuesday that it is awarding a billion-dollar contract to the Tennessee Valley Authority to produce tritium at a TVA nuclear reactor near Knoxville that generates electricity for homes and businesses in the Southeast.
Tritium is an isotope that enhances the explosive force of nuclear warheads
The decision marks the first time in the nation's history that a civilian nuclear plant will be used to produce weapons material.
Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said that awarding the contract to the Watts Bar nuclear plant will be cost-efficient while providing needed tritium. TVA's Sequoyah nuclear plant outside Chattanooga will serve as a backup.

Just something to ponder now and then...

Any future attack of mass destruction on the United States by an Islamic group will be met with absolute destruction of any and all Islamic countries. --- Northpaw
I agree with you 100%. The roundup of terror cells in Islamic countries would be swift and efficient were we to implement this policy. I'm fairly convinced it's our only chance at survival as a nation.---Lazarus Long

Count me in on this one. Mutually Assured Destruction has its drawbacks (which is why I support a Missle Defence System)... but it worked against the Soviets and it will work against Islam. When you know you've got everything to lose, you try harder to keep the peace.

Well, the destruction I'm speaking of isn't exactly mutually assured. It's pretty much only assured for them. One or two of our cities might be leveled, but the whole of their (anti) civilization would be completely wiped off the earth.

Good point. We should rename it from MAD to MAMA.

Mutually Assured Maximum Assault. They do your worst, then we do our worst.

And you are right, Lazarus, our MAMA will make their MAMA pale in comparison.

In short, any nuclear attack on any US city could destroy the United States as a functional state within a few years. Thanks to the NEA, we aren't the fierce, resilient, determined people we were in the 50's

BULL! Even the liberals in NYC proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Americans have a core of steel. We are attacked, we will bury our dead, and while we are mourning, we'll be loading up the warships. Don't ever kid yourself about the resiliancy of the American people.

These morons set off a dirty bomb or a nuke of any type and we will open the gates of hell.

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