Posted on 01/08/2002 2:45:27 PM PST by Axion
Arms Seizure Backfires, Wounds Israel Summary Israeli naval commandos seized a vessel loaded with arms in the Red Sea on Jan. 4. Israel claims the weapons came from Iran and were bound for the Palestinian territories. But the circumstances surrounding the shipment and details that emerged after its seizure have raised questions about the entire incident and, more importantly, about Israel's credibility. Audiences in Europe and the United States now will be more likely to question other Israeli claims concerning Palestinians. Analysis In a daring nighttime raid on Jan. 4, Israeli commandos seized a vessel in international waters of the Red Sea that was carrying 50 tons of weapons, including Katyusha rockets, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, sniper rifles and mortar launchers. Israeli government officials said the next morning that the Palestinian Authority had purchased the weapons from Iran and was intending to smuggle them into the territories. The circumstances surrounding the shipment and details that emerged after its seizure have cast doubts on Israel's report of the incident, however. Both the Palestinian Authority and Tehran have denied any connection to the Karine A, and a report in a prestigious British shipping journal contradicts Israeli allegations regarding the vessel's ownership. Rather than validating Israel's claims of Palestinian duplicity, the incident has damaged Israel's credibility. Audiences in the West, especially in Europe and the United States, are now more likely to question other Israeli charges against the Palestinians. American and European distrust of Israeli allegations will give the Palestinian Authority more room to maneuver in the short term. PA leader Yasser Arafat can continue to argue that he wants peace and to cite Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's aggressive policies as the root cause of continuing violence in the Middle East. Israel had hoped to achieve a double whammy with the ship seizure. First, it sought to throw a wrench into peace talks. It aimed to ensure that the United States would not push Israel into negotiating a truce at a time when it has the upper hand with Arafat. Implicating Iran would advance yet another goal -- containment of the emerging Persian Gulf power. Immediately after announcing the capture of the vessel, Israel called on the European Union to declare Iran a state sponsor of terrorism. The United States already does so. But the seizure of the Karine A instead has mushroomed into a full-scale embarrassment for Israel. Several details undermine claims that the Palestinian Authority was directly involved in the purchase and smuggling of weapons. For example, the timing of the seizure provided a convenient means of thwarting progress toward peace talks during a four-day visit by U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni. Despite claims to the contrary, Zinni failed to achieve any real steps toward resuming peace talks. In fact, Sharon plans to re-evaluate Israel's relations with the Palestinian Authority, Haaretz reported Jan. 7. He has pointed to the vessel seizure to justify the move and to validate his labeling of Arafat as a terrorist unwilling to work toward peace. At the same time, logic argues against the idea that the Palestinian Authority was involved in the incident: The presence of Palestinian naval officers aboard the vessel, including one who later directly fingered two of Arafat's top lieutenants, limits plausible deniability. Though the Palestinian Authority does not govern a state, it nonetheless must behave as a government -- and governments engaged in covert or illegal operations usually act in a manner that allows plausible deniability. It would be either extremely stupid or sheerly lunatic for the Palestinians to think that a weapons-laden ship might transit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal undetected at a time when both are under heightened surveillance. Furthermore, there are contradictory reports about the vessel's ownership. Israel claims Palestinians owned the ship, but Lloyd's List, a premier shipping publication owned by Lloyd's of London, reported Jan.7 that it was owned by an Iraqi national. According to Lloyd's, it was a Lebanese-flagged vessel operated by the Beirut-based Diana K. Shipping Co. and was sold in August 2001 to Ali Mohammed Abbas for $400,000. The ship was then re-registered in Tonga as the Karine A. Although a Lebanese Transport Ministry official has disputed the Lloyd's report, it lends credence to the Palestinian denials and countercharges that Israel manipulated the seizure to derail peace talks. Ultimately, it matters little whether the Israeli assertions are true. The many apparent discrepancies, the illogic of the idea that the Palestinian Authority would attempt such an operation and finally the Lloyd's List report have combined to cast doubt on the Israeli claims. Even the United States has failed to endorse Israel's version of events, The Jerusalem Post reported Jan. 8. As far as Israel is concerned, the best thing that can happen now is for the whole incident to blow over. Politicians and military leaders are all pointing fingers at each other, blaming everyone but themselves for what is seen as a public relations debacle. The internal debate, however, overlooks the larger issue: Israel's credibility has taken a blow, giving the Palestinians leverage in the short term. Now the Palestinian Authority can ask Europe and the United States to pressure Sharon to come to the negotiating table. More important, few will take future Israeli claims about Palestinian arms-smuggling at face value. Israel's burden of proof just got a lot heavier. |
There next commercial analysis will say that Arafat was an Israeli agent. Some things never change, until the end.
I did predict though that SOF and the CIA would employ all manner of wave propagated lethal and non-lethal weaponry and psyops, which it appears they may not have done. Had they received more resistance they would have gone to the bleeding edge to test new stuff on these lab-rats.
It's almost like Stratfor is trying to shape public opinion lately rather than being objective.
U.S. Intelligence: Weapons Smuggling Ship Was Third to Palestinians
Powell condemns Palestinian arms smuggling
Ha h ah ah ha ha ha ha ha
The Muslim/Arabprop Tag Team is working overtime...
I expect to see the Mad Hatter and the Queen of hearts soon...
These losers from an alternate universe are clueless.
They expect to flim flam the whole world? Hmmmmm.
The "Palestinians" have been caught redhanded once again violating every pledge and promise ever made by them.
The Muslim Mass Murderers are self-destructing and inviting somebody to bomb them into oblivion.
Hopefully they do not view themselves as that important and this is just a one-time sloppy piece. If you looked at the Stratfor forum, it has a new thread with a number of people asking for the explanation; I do hope Stratfor will find it possible to explain itself and/or withdraw this article.
As for the mis-predictions on the Afghan op: no bad feelings from me, even if they were mostly wrong. Predicting how things would work out in war is difficult; what they wrote was a guesswork and I took it as such. From now on, I'll be surely less trusting.
You are 100% correct. I ordered them for our Valentine's Day Party and Skeet Shoot out at the Lake. The 23MM tracer rounds are especially good for skeet practice, and when you hit the pigeon with an 81MM Mortar Bomb, there is no doubt about it. Since many of the homes on the opposite shore are unoccupied during the Winter, we hope to keep collateral damage to a minimum. Anyway, we are insured.
I hope this clears up any mystery in your minds about this ordnance. Please, let the Peace Talks continue.
Stratfor tries to repair image, issues damage control "clarification"
Do you think protecting their children could have had anything to do with it? I know you approach this from another perspective, but can't you understand that not everyone considers pre-teenagers pre-jihadists? Is it so strange to you that Israel might want to deny Arafat illegal armaments (yes, illegal, even YA acknowledges this, he's signed treaties outlawing these things, which he violates, that's why he denies it now).
I do agree with you Virg, if Israel had let the ship through, they would have been off the mark.
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