If he doensn't support renewing it, then he'll be breaking a campaign promise.
I've been to many gun shows since the ban was enacted and the only thing I've noticed is that "assault" weapons have dropped in price. Most weapons and magazines are still plentiful. I paid over $400 for my Chinese Mac-90 in '93. Now I see higher quality Romanian models going for $250.
Not sure where you've been shopping, but I know that three years ago I paid right at $300 for a Romanian SKS that had been selling for right at $100 prior to September of 1994. Same thing with semi-auto AK-47's. It's a supply and demand thing. The '94 AW ban basically froze the supply on foreign weapons and the price responded accordingly. The same thing has been true of full-auto weapons since 1986. That MP-5 would go for about $1,000 if we could buy one like we do any other long gun. Since we can't, and since no more are allowed into the country, they go for more like $12,000.
Sadly, you are correct. I recall Bush saying he supports the ban against "assault" weapons and large capacity magazines.
However,
Wouldn't renewing the ban fall in Ashcroft's hands? He is certainly a stronger supporter of 2A rights than Bush is. Is it conceivable that when the time comes to renew it, Bush would simply take a hands-off approach and let Ashcroft deal with it?
That said, what needs to be done is to make sure the HOUSE doesn't pass it. The senate is solid anti. The house could stop it.