[NittanyLion]

If Bush gets 15% of the black vote in 2004 he is guaranteed reelection.

True enough, because other demographic groups would likely break the same way. 15% of the black vote probably means Bush would get a majority of the Hispanic vote, white vote, etc.

That said, I'll eat my cyberhat if Bush receives 15% of the black vote in 2004. The Democrat has received at least 83% of the black vote in each of the last 10 elections.

[Captain Kirk]

You lose your bet if Bush picks Condi Rice for veep. I suspect he would clear 30 percent of the black vote under such a scenario.