[Sabertooth]

If he's made it out of Afghanistan to anywhere besides Pakistan or Saudi Arabia, my bet is he lays low for 18 to 24 months until Ramadan 2003, when he'll have those Mahdi-relevant eclipses going for him.

After the UN steps in, Afghanistan could easily be back to hellhole status by then.

[Travis McGee]

He can't lay low for months, his half-life on the lam is measured in days, UNLESS he is hiding in a well-stocked deep underground cave.

He won't risk crossing oceans by ship or plane: too many circumstances beyond his control could put our hands on him.

For the same reason, he won't cross a frontier in a car trunk or dressed in a birqa: the shame if captured would diminish his legend.

Best for him is horse travel: if he makes it great, if killed, he retains his glorious warrior image.

I still think what I thought long ago: he is traveling with 5-10 true believers who would gladly jump off a cliff for him. They are in a pre-stocked deep cave with years worth of food, water, clothes, blankets etc. If it's deep enough with a totally hidden entrance and well dispersed vents, it will be invisible even to thermal sensors. He could lay low in such a cave reading his koran for months, easily. Then at the best moment, he slips into Pakistan to appear at his favorite madrassa school, before he disappears into a slum of millions.

The lesson of Somalia (for Osama) is that even the USA could not capture M. F. Aidid in a teeming third world slum.