Even in an election year? If it were not an electon year, I would agree with you completely. I remember tax & Spend Democratic Governor Mike Lowry of Washington State being elected in November on a promise not to increase taxes and then in December before he was sworn in coming up with a tax increase plan. That was pretty obvious to most of us in Washington State, but also confirming that the Dem's would bit their tongue on discussing tax increases until they had counted their votes.
I see Davis and the Democratic California State legislature as knowing that a tax increase in an election year is bad politics. If they had the ability to delay an emergency legislative session until early December 2002 after the elections, I could see them doing that.
Unfortunately for them, everything I read says that doomsday is prior to June 2002. Moody's seems to have established that as a pretty clear deadline. The FERC seems to be also helping out with small change requests for a billion here and there that should keep the pressure on Davis.
The other option would be a federal bailout. I'm sure they'll ask for one because they will be able to play the politics of the "cruel Republicans in Washington taking it out on California for supporting Gore."
I suppose you're right about the timing, though. If Davis can somehow limp through the election without raising taxes, he'll try. The question is how bad will the situation be. My guess is that it will be very bad and that next summer we'll be discussing the potential bankruptcy of California (not that I believe that will happen).