Anthrax: Profile Of A Bio-Warrior; And What the FBI May Have Missed; Strategic Analysis

Recently, the Federal Bureau of Investigation released a psychological profile of the person believed to have sent the three anthrax letters that have killed at least 4, and contaminated our postal system. The authorities have yet to find a culprit. Earlier they had stated, "The culprit doesn't fit the foreign terrorist profile." They are correct. The targets of the anthrax letters make neither sense nor reason for a person even fitting the FBI's profile. We believe we found a logical reason for these letters being sent . To find this culprit - one must think 'out of the box'. That is what we will do here.

According to the FBI, the first two letters were postmarked Sept. 18, 2001. In our research, we found that this means the anthrax used was probably produced on or before September 11, 2001, as it takes quite a while to manufacture it on your own. The letter dated Oct. 9, 2001 had much more potency than the first two.

We seem to be focusing on 'who' sent the letters more than 'why' the letters were sent. Based on the FBI's profile experts, here are the believed attributes of the culprit:

is likely an adult male. if employed, is likely to be in a position requiring little contact with the public, or other employees. He may work in a laboratory. He is apparently comfortable working with an extremely hazardous material. He probably has a scientific background to some extent, or at least a strong interest in science. has likely taken appropriate protective steps to ensure his own safety, which may include the use of an Anthrax vaccination or antibiotics. Has access to a source of Anthrax and possesses knowledge and expertise to refine it. possesses or has access to some laboratory equipment; i.e., microscope, glassware, centrifuge, etc. has exhibited an organized, rational thought process in furtherance of his criminal behavior. Has a familiarity, direct or indirect, with the Trenton, NJ, metropolitan area; however, this does not necessarily mean he currently lives in the Trenton, NJ, area.. He is comfortable traveling in and around this locale. did not select victims randomly. He made an effort to identify the correct address, including zip code, of each victim and used sufficient postage to ensure proper delivery of the letters. The offender deliberately "selected" NBC News, the New York Post, and the office of Senator Tom Daschle as the targeted victims (and possibly AMI in Florida). These targets are probably very important to the offender. They may have been the focus of previous expressions of contempt which may have been communicated to others, or observed by others. is a non-confrontational person, at least in his public life. He lacks the personal skills necessary to confront others. He chooses to confront his problems "long distance" and not face-to-face. He may hold grudges for a long time, vowing that he will get even with "them" one day. There are probably other, earlier examples of this type of behavior. While these earlier incidents were not actual Anthrax mailings, he may have chosen to anonymously harass other individuals or entities that he perceived as having wronged him. He may also have chosen to utilize the mail on those occasions. prefers being by himself more often than not. If he is involved in a personal relationship it will likely be of a self serving nature. It seems like the FBI has based this profile around a working model of a terrorist or a common criminal. But this profile does not answer many questions. Among them, "why would the person send anthrax to a place that would naturally report what has happened to them when such deadly parcels could have caused much more deaths if sent elsewhere?"

In my opinion, the key to this puzzle is to look at where the letters were sent, and then think 'out of the box', and come up with a plausible reason 'why' those locations would be targeted. The first thing we must do is list the letters, according to the FBI:

Letter 1 One page, hand-printed letter Transmittal envelope, also similarly hand printed Addressed to "NBC TV - Tom Brokaw" - No return address Postmarked Trenton, NJ 09/18/2001 (Tues.)

Letter 2 One page, hand-printed letter Transmittal envelope, also similarly hand printed Addressed to "NY Post" - No return address Postmarked Trenton, NJ 09/18/2001 (Tues.)

Letter 3 One page, hand-printed letter Transmittal envelope, also similarly hand printed Addressed to "Senator Daschle - 509 Hart Senate Office Building" Return address - "4th Grade, Greendale School, Franklin Park, NJ" Return address zip code - "08852" Postmarked Trenton, NJ 10/09/2001 (Tues.)

What's missing from the FBI list of letters is the letter to the American Media building in Florida that killed a photojournalist. Perhaps this letter wasn't listed because the FBI hasn't obtained the letter itself. However, place the American Media anthrax letter to the top of the list (since it was first), and you'll see that the last letter sent would have been the 4th letter - with a return address of:

4th letter - 4th grade. Note that the "4th grade letter was of a 'higher grade' than the others. Coincidence?

The profile we've done here is not based on the writing content of the letter, but where and when they were sent. We are not using the evidence to produce a motive, we are instead thinking 'out of the box - using a possible motive outside the usual FBI profile.

We (as Americans) think with our own logic - not the logic of the culprit(s). Hence, it must be a simple act of terrorism. What if these four (not three) letters were NOT an act of terrorism - yet? What if it was simply a test or series of tests?

No, this is not a leap of logic. If the sender of the anthrax letters wanted to kill and terrorize large numbers of Americans, these letters could have been sent to more unsuspecting places. But sending to the addresses above would provide the sender (and his coconspirators) with the information they desired without having to send operators into the field to check the results. Let's go over them again.

There is no use manufacturing large quantities of anthrax unless you are sure it's going the do the job you want. It's too risky to use live human subjects, and you don't want your 'field testing' to be tracked back to you. You want to make sure you (and possibly others) can track the results without the results being tracked back to you. Take a look at how this could have been done.

Letter #1 (1st grade; 1st test - sent to American Media Building) - home of several well read tabloids. Send it there, wait, then drop by a supermarket and read about the results. Since most major media won't take them seriously anyway, most people would write the report off as mere tabloid journalism. The culprit could have been reading about the results before Tom Brokaw even began to cover it.

Letter #2 (2nd grade; 2nd test) - sent to NBC TV - Tom Brokaw. Letter #3 (3rd grade; 3rd test) sent to Addressed to "NY Post" - No return address. Letters #2 and #3 even tells the recipient "Take Penicillin Now". By now, the media has already gained interest. They will report what is going on, and more importantly - how the local authorities responded. How fast did antibiotics become available for the civilian population? How fast was a given area was sealed off, etc.

Would a terrorist want to kill Brokaw and his staff? Not if terrorism is partly defined as "Theater - with weapons". This enemy uses our media and its own information source. The culprit here clearly did not want Brokaw or his associates dead - just alerted.

Before we get to Letter #4 (4th grade, forth test), let's throw some more logic at the problem. Let's say you got word to some bad guys overseas that you could cook up some anthrax to be used in a massive bio-attack. But you also had to convince them that a) you need time, b) you need money, and c) a place to get the mission done, and c) an exit if possible. The bad guys respond by saying "prove it". The culprit's response is "I'm working on it - watch the results on TV, or read the newspapers".

It's safe - no ties to the culprit or the bad guys. They can sit back and watch from a Mosque, or even an Afghan cave to see the progress. Meanwhile, the culprit keeps cooking his stuff. He's getting better at it. Maybe a little seed money came his way for better equipment (with maybe a better lab placed strategically between Washington and New York - Like Trenton. NJ) with a note "We hope you can do better than this."

Letter #4 (4th grade, 4th test) - Addressed to "Senator Daschle - 509 Hart Senate Office Building". Much more deadly and spreadable than the previous 3, and guaranteed to make news. More importantly, how would Washington respond? The culprit(s) simply watched the results of this 'battlefield testing' on television - with virtually no traces back to the source.

Letter #1: anthrax had to have been started in production BEFORE Sept. 11. Letter #2: Anthrax had to have been started in production sometime around Sept. 11. I suspect that the culprit may very well have had 'prior knowledge' of the September 11 attacks, else was told by someone to begin production around that time. Letter 3: Anthrax production probably began after September 11, and AFTER the first letter hit the American Media Building in Florida. The culprit already knew the result of Letter #1 by then.

If you're going to move to the next phase and build a bigger, more lethal anthrax attack (or your handlers were pleased), material has been sent for major production - this would take a while, and would explain why there have been no more letters. Mr. Anthrax Producer is busy right now. He's alone, for not too many friends would even want to be working around him at this time. Here's where this part of the FBI profile makes sense:

He may have exhibited significant behavioral changes at various critical periods of time throughout the course of the Anthrax mailings and related media coverage. These may include the following;

1. Altered physical appearance. 2. Pronounced anxiety. 3. Atypical media interest. 4. Noticeable mood swings. 5. More withdrawn. 6. Unusual level of preoccupation. 7. Unusual absenteeism. 8. Altered sleeping and/or eating habits.

These post-offense behaviors would have been most noticeable during critical times, including but not limited to: the mailing of the letters (09/18/01 and 10/09/01), the death of first Anthrax victim, media reports of each anthrax incident, and especially the illnesses and deaths of non-targeted victims.

To summarize: The profile of the letters sent could logically have been a test to see how well the localized production of anthrax worked (by watching media reports), before refining the process for a much larger operation.

a) The culprit cannot move freely right now - he'd have to rebuild the operation elsewhere, making leakage and capture that much easier. b) He is probably working alone. c) He clearly has working knowledge of the use of equipment and necessary protection against biological weapons. d) This operation started before September 11 meaning this person is probably tied to the same network as those responsible for the September 11 attacks (not that being tied makes a difference, but probably that the anthrax producer is of the radical Muslim branch)

The pitfall of the American response to this issue may be the aggressive nature of finding who's responsible, and pointing fingers, and less on building a defensive shield against a next attack. Whatever vaccine is available should be put into maximum production immediately. Also, persons who fit the profile as knowledgeable of such production who may have had prior knowledge of the September 11 attacks should be apprehended immediately for questioning.

A recent news article stated that a student of microbiology at the University of Karachi, Pakistan, had disappeared around the time of the attacks but was recently found and arrested. While his name, Saeed, did not turn up in citations on microbiology, a medical publication search revealed that a Pakistani group studied bacillus subtitles, a strain closely related to anthrax, in the mid 1990's.

Various members of this group have studied enzyme-like substances made by bacteria and there is some research that suggests that the fatal effects of anthrax toxin are a result of its ability to break down peptides, similar to a peptidase (a natural body enzyme). Even more interesting, there is a subset of this group that extensively studied substances that acted somewhat like trypsin, a specific type of peptidase, and other enzymes, in the venom of snakes and scorpions. These papers are dated between the late 1980's to mid 1990's.

There has been a lot of speculation about the anthrax attacks and their origin. The timing and certain other "coincidences" make it seem likely that there is a connection to the September 11 attacks, but the evidence that has emerged as a result of the ongoing investigation suggest a domestic source. And of course there are the left-wingnuts who are quick to jump to the conclusion that it is the work of some right-wing extremist. While there is a degree of legitimacy to all these assertions, there are still some glaring inconsistencies. J.J. Johnson's analysis offers a plausible explanation that could close some of the gaps. I found it to be an interesting read.

Very interesting. Especially the 4th letter, 4th grade observation. It just drives home the idea that the perp is testing his wares by sending them to prominent politicans and publications so he can get feedback.

The article failed to mention the last woman who died, the Vietnamese woman. She got no letter that we know of and there is no anthrax in her home. The perp could have infected her directly as a test of how to infect people *without* doing it by letter.

It is not hard to imagine that the perp would now feel emboldened to pick ordinary Americans as targets and infecting them by other means than a letter. He experimented with one ( the Vietnamese lady who died) Now he may be working out a way to infect many more. And it could be that he is waiting for people to forget the urgency that was created by tests 1,2,3 and 4. Plus people will be busy and distracted during the holiday season. Less inclined to bother going to the doctor and thinking they could not have anthrax because they are not in the media and don't work for the post office.

The lesson here is if you get flu-like symptoms don't try to tough it out. Bug your doctor even if you feel stupid doing it.

The spores could have been produced at any time before use- they have no specific shelf life, but last indefinitely. The natural stuff can sit in soil for decades.

And, just about any antibiotic works on the strains that were used... the key problem being in getting the antibiotics before symptoms really set in.

Other than that, it doesn't hurt to think outside the box on it. The more ideas the merrier.

Hmmm. Ok and what if the lady that died was specifically chosen because she was a loner, apparently had no family, only a few close friends.

She was a very private person, not much of a talker about her life and detailed habits from what I've gathered via FR, tv, Time and Newsweek Mags.

If so, it could probably have been someone she knew or one that knew her that infected her. She could have been chosen specifically because of the above and the perp knew of her habits. He'd be less likely to be caught and there'd be no family publically, on tv, pushing the cops to find out what happened, how she got it.

Someone connected to her work place? It would have a lab..but since I don't know much about the manufacture of a more weaponized anthrax, eg. smaller particles, I don't know if the lab would have all or most of what is needed to manufacture the anthax.

Would it have been political or personal? The only private smallish company affected was the hosital that the lady worked for. The rest were huge businesses and a demonrat's office/mail.

OR for some reason her mail had ALOT of contamination/cross contamination with the last batch of anthrax but they've ruled that out, haven't they? No anthrax on her clothes or in her house, mailbox, where she worked.

The perp could still be waiting for everything to die down and get people off guard. Then just dump spores in an air intake at the local grocery store where people come from all over to shop. Many would get sick never dreaming they were anthrax targets. (Just like the Vietnamese lady) If 20 or 30 were exposed, several could die before it could be determined that antrax had been released and WHERE IT HAD BEEN RELEASED.

Just because the anthrax can be treated is no sign it is not dangerous. It is still deadly to anyone who does not EXPECT to be a target and therefore does not go to a doctor at all or waits until it is too late.

And the perp only has to infect one unexpected place, like a grocery store in LA or Houston. One store... and it could cause a HUGE panic. Because you won't what the next place will be. The anthrax threat is STILL alive and well.

Was the Vietnamese woman who died more than we thought?

It was mentioned on TV that she was one of the last persons to get on the last chopper off the Embassy roof in Saigon!

Could she possibly have been someones girlfriend ?

Some guy who is important in America now?

How did you get on the chopper, didnt you have to have some pretty good connections?

Any old Viet Nam followers remember?

Maybe the killing of her was a message to someone......we know what you were doing ....?

We're playing with your head?

It's a small detail, but now I wonder if, even if the perp tends to be a loner as profiled, he identifies with a larger group.

Note that one of the lines was "We have this anthrax." Not "I have this anthrax", some anthrax . . . having used 1st person plural rather than lst person singular as one would expect a loner to do.

I'm sure they are looking into every aspect of the Vietnamese woman's life, including how she came to be on the Embassy roof in Saigon when it was evacuated.

I read that she paid her bills by money order. I would think that when money orders are obtained in bulk and distributed to different outlets, such as convenience stores, there ought to be some sort of serial numbers on them, and some sort of accounting procedure, even crude, for where each batch went for sale. Surely they have looked into this angle as well.

Yes, thanks, I read that with great interest before I found your thread. AG has done a good job gathering facts and presenting them succinctly. The biggest drawback is that there is much info we aren't privy to and one must resist the tendency to jump to conclusions. I'm so hoping there is a break in the case and that it could come in a benign, unexpected manner.

--a lot of this is based on the assumption that it's being manufactured on the fly. There's another possibility, and that is, different pre-made batches were already in existence, and are being tried out. They need storage and some care in handling, but nothing more sophisticated than that really. It could be that the wussiest stuff is being used too, as an indicator of "this is just a taste of what we have, it could get worse when we choose to do it".

Besides that, no idea, the possibilites are enormous over who is doing this or why, there are hundreds of possibilities. Motive is always the most important I think, and in this case who "could" do it is still too large a number. narrow down the motives, all the motives that are possible, not just the most popular ones. and motives come from "who profits", and what might actually constitute a "profit" in this case.

You raise important considerations; still there is no harm brainstorming the possibilities in the hope that some missing tidbit of information might be a crucial one, or that someone may have an idea that links all the pieces together that perhaps no one else had thought of. We all have a stake in seeing this thing solved.

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