Posted on 11/13/2001 7:54:31 AM PST by Ada Coddington
Tuesday November 13, 10:18 am Eastern Time
Will anti-terror war revive ill-fated Afghan pipeline?
By Carol Giacomo and C. Bryson Hull
WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Afghanistan has been at war so long that the prospect of major investment in the rugged and conflicted land seems like a foolhardy fantasy.
American oil giant Unocal Corp. (NYSE:UCL - news) wasted a lot of time and money there in the 1990s and its spokesman flinches at the idea of his company becoming reinvolved with an abandoned pipeline project.
``Not us. We've said that over and over again,'' Barry Lane emphatically told Reuters recently.
Nevertheless, the U.S. anti-terrorism war launched after the Sept. 11 attacks has made talk of serious energy development in Afghanistan somewhat more plausible at a time when fears about the security of Middle East oil run high.
``I'm not saying it will happen quickly but people are dusting this (idea) off again,'' said Asia expert James Clad of Cambridge Energy Research Associates in an interview.
He suggested other companies besides Unocal may be willing to consider a project that uses Afghanistan to transport fossil fuels from the energy-rich Caspian Sea to South Asian markets.
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is one increasingly influential leader who entertains that possibility. He privately told some Americans in New York this week that peace in Afghanistan could open new potential for a pipeline there.
Right now, the United States is dropping bombs on the country in the hunt for the al Queda network of Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden, alleged mastermind of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and Afghan Taliban leaders who harbor them.
But Washington has said that unlike in 1989, when it abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets were ousted by U.S.-backed Islamic rebels, it will rebuild the country and work with the United Nations to install a broad-based peaceful government.
That portends -- at least in theory -- billions of dollars in development and humanitarian assistance plus a sustained concerted effort by the international community to try to ensure a reasonably stable political environment.
Those are attractive features for private companies who salivate over the energy potential of the Caspian, which lies some 1,000 miles (2,600 kilometers) west of Kabul.
CASPIAN IS LONG-TIME LURE
Oil companies have long been interested in pipelines from the Caspian to Mediterranean and Arabian sea ports where cargoes could take oil to European and U.S. markets.
The cheapest pipeline route to Arabian Sea ports would be through Iran. But the United States has pushed for a pipeline through its ally Turkey to prevent Russia and Iran from controlling the region's energy resources.
British energy giant BP (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BP.L) has been leading studies into a pipeline from Baku, the Azeri capital, to the Turkish Mediterranean port, Ceyhan.
Experts say the Caspian's oil and gas reserves may be the third largest in the world and an important hedge against possible disruptions in the Gulf, the world's energy stronghold.
Most of the region's reserves are held by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, with some estimates pegging the region's total reserves at 18-34 billion barrels.
Critics see another motive for President George W. Bush's decision to wage war in dirt poor Afghanistan than just wiping out anti-U.S. extremists: a desire to boost oil interests as he and Vice President Dick Cheney were once in the business.
But it would be too facile to argue Bush is following his father's presidential footsteps into war for that reason.
Whereas the bountiful oil fields of Kuwait and possibly Saudi Arabia were at risk when the first President Bush waged the Gulf War on Iraq in 1991, Afghanistan, by global standards, has hardly any oil.
The Soviets during their occupation estimated the country's proven and probable reserves at 95 million barrels.
By comparison, Bush's home state of Texas, which is slightly larger than Afghanistan, has 5.3 billion barrels of proven reserves.
Afghanistan's natural gas reserves are more substantial at an estimated 5 trillion cubic feet.
The country's true value is as a thoroughfare for pipelines to bring Caspian oil to better-paying international markets.
UNOCAL'S HISTORY
Unocal, a California-based energy giant, in the 1990s sought rights to build a massive pipeline system across Afghanistan linking the vast oil and natural gas reserves in Turkmenistan to a plant and ports in Pakistan.
The company pursued an alliance with the same Taliban forces Washington is now bombing, U.S. officials said in a recent Washington Post story, before the project foundered.
``We withdrew in 1998 for a number of reasons, not the least of which was we just don't have the capital to move forward,'' Lane said in a telephone interview with Reuters.
At the time the project collapsed, the company had a memorandum of understanding with Pakistan, which was to be the market, and Turkmenistan, which was to be the supplier, but Pakistan has sufficient supply right now, he said.
Meanwhile, Unocal has ``developed a full portfolio of other projects that really are going to demand capital for a number of years. That whole region (Central Asia) is no longer a central focus to us,'' Lane said, ``I'm not saying the project wouldn't happen, but it isn't going to happen with us.''
A senior Bush administration official said he agreed with this analysis, even though Turkmenistan's president continues to push the pipeline.
The United States has never opposed a trans-Afghanistan pipeline but ``there have always been so many difficulties with a project like that,'' he told Reuters.
Even if the war ends and a broad-based government is established in Afghanistan, significant challenges will remain in financing the project and marketing the gas, he said.
That is because Pakistan's economy is in terrible shape and its natural gas market is price-controlled.
Also, the most attractive market for Central Asian natural gas would be India but continued tensions with Pakistan do not offer investors the confidence needed to build a multi-billion dollar pipeline, said the official.
Clad agreed financing is a real dilemma. But he suggested that once fighting ends, new dynamics are likely and the pipeline may acquire a ``new lease on life.''
Actually, it was no higher than 5,500 on that list. It appears just after all the names of the innocent civilians killed in the WTC.
If this war were not a fraud, we would have reciprocated against the nations that supplied the hijackers, i.e., Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the the United Arab Emirates. Or we could have bombed training camps in Pakistan and investigated the Indian report that a Pakistani general funded the hijackers to the tune of $100,000.
Sorry, Dugway, attacking the Taliban had nothing to do with the WTC and the Pentagon. It was simply something that we had already planned to do and now had an excuse for.
Terrorism and conspiracy go hand in hand.
Yep, probably #2 behind re-establishing the folw of heroin/opiates so that the Queen of England won't go broke :-)
They are higher on the list of suspects than Afghanistan is. Nevertheless, I agree that it is possible that this plot consisted of the 19 dead and maybe only a few others.
When you say "supplied" you imply these countries sent these terrorists on their mission. Your argument is as valid as saying we should bomb Mexico for "supplying" illegal immigrants. I'm interested in your information that Sammi Bin Laden is hiding in Saudi, Egypt, or the UAE. And, as you well know, we will deal with terrorism one state at a time, ie, Pakistan, etc.
"Sorry, Dugway, attacking the Taliban had nothing to do with the WTC and the Pentagon. It was simply something that we had already planned to do and now had an excuse for."
That's an utter falsehood and you know it.
The Indian press reported in June that, "India and Iran will facilitate, U.S. and Russian plans for limited military action, against the Taliban if the contemplated tough new economic sanctions don,t bend Afghanistan's fundamentalist regime.
The invasion plans described in the Indian press in June may come to pass in October: "Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will lead the ground attack with a strong military back up of the U.S. and Russia. Vital Taliban installations and military assets will be targeted.
The economic reasons for the multi-national assault against the Taliban were explained: "Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are threatened by the Taliban that is aiming to control their vast oil, gas, and other resources by bringing Islamic fundamentalists into power.
The war was already planned in July. 911 was serendipity.
No, he didn't.
Still relying upon the "Hindu Times" as your source? 'nough said.
You must have pulled this logic out of your A$$.
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