To: Axion
From
this article:
"Canada geese have bred on the airport, and we are doing everything within our power to control this behavior. When we reported the first Canada goose nest on JFK to the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, we were informed we could not destroy the nest, harass the parents, addle or oil the eggs. It was not long afterward that an Air France Concorde hit several geese when landing at JFK"
Two of the engines caught on fire and had to be shut down.
231 posted on
11/13/2001 7:52:21 AM PST by
palmer
To: palmer
This is from that birdstrike site.
The likelihood of these three hazards can be roughly
estimated from the following information:
Fatal and non-fatal worldwide hull losses since 1959 (five total, one fatal),
Total jet transport flights since 1959 (about 300 million),
Estimated U.S. and Canadian large commercial jet transport flights 1999-2008, (80 million),
Average load factor of 54% (60% for airliners, 0% for cargo jet transports, 10% cargo flights),
Average passenger capacity (130),
Probability a passenger dies in a fatal bird strike accident (0.5),
and Cost of average jet transport (30 million 1997 dollars).
Assuming that the historical world hull loss rate is
roughly current underlying rate in the U.S. and Canada,
P(Hull Loss From a Bird Strike Event) = 5/300M = 1.67 x 10-8
P(Fatal | Hull Loss) = 0.2
P(Fatal Hull Loss Event) = 3.3 x 10-9
P(Fatal Hull Loss Event in U.S. or Canada) = (3.3 x 10-9)(8 x 10+6) = 0.027/yr
Assuming a binomial distribution of events, this would imply that over the next decade,
P(Zero Fatal Hull Losses) = 0.763
P(One Fatal Hull Loss) = 0.209
P(Two Fatal Hull Losses) = 0.026
P(Three Fatal Hull Losses) = 0.001
Estimated Fatal Hull Losses = 0.209 + 2(0.026) + 3(0.001) = 0.263
Note: This last figure means that in the next 10 years there is about a 25% chance of a fatal bird strike accident involving a large jet transport in the U.S. or Canada.
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