Yes, but that "bedridden" child is not going to be kept in bed waiting for the MD to visit. They'll be taken to a clinic or the emergency room, and the MD will examine them THERE -- after they have sat in a crowded waiting room for an hour or so, like usual. If there is a smallpox epidemic, there will be provisions made for isolating people in the hospital. You simply don't let contagious people sit around the general population. In the initial stages of the diesase, only a few days, there will be a chance for some infections like that, but once the first diagnosis of smallpox is made, quarantines can start.
Sorry Tom, but I agree with Stephan--He's done his homework. If you doubt it, then take the time to read the scenario and results of the "Dark Winter" exercise conducted this summer. A few of their findings include;
"Initial innoculation strategy was intriniscally unsustainable before the first infection showed up in the hospital."
(My Note* basically infected people infected many others before the disease became obvious. They surmise 10 people are infected by those already ill BEFORE they show the symptoms of disease/or seek medical treatment. In a situation like this, it takes time to backtrack how a victim was exposed/who he has now exposed-- and this exercise showed cleary that the disease spreads much faster than our ability to track down and quarantine other possible victims.)
"Those in charge don't understand the scope of an initial infection."
"The medical care system was overwhelmed quickly."
"Current vaccine reserves cannot contain an epidemic." They ran out of vaccine with only the first 3 states population.
Their findings showed that quarantine and forced travel restrictions were the only option left to try to retain control of the disease spreading--in this exercise that option failed miserably.)
The results were that interstate commerce collapsed, international commerce was totally halted, food/water/energy supplies ran out quickly and the govt decided to impose martial law within a short period of time.
"Dark Winter"