[101viking]

Well thought out and extremely plausible. The only thing I would add is the India factor. The Indians are only waiting for an excuse, and a scenario such as this would be a golden opportunity. I doubt seriously that if OBL staged a succesful coup in Pakistan that Indians would hesitate. They would also have the support of the Americans, Russians and the Chinese.

[Travis McGee]

If you are suggesting that the Indians might immediately preemptively nuke targets in Pakistan, that would also serve OBLs purpose by provoking World War Jihad.

There is very little chance that India knows with enough certainty where all the Pakistani nukes are to risk a preemptive strike which might be answered by a well hidden Paki nuclear tipped rocket.

Remember, on the last day of the Gulf War Iraq was still firing SCUDs. With every US satellite, recon plane, SAS troop etc looking for them, they continued to evade detection and fire.

[Andrew Byler]

and the Chinese.

Oh I really don't think so. The Chinese appear to be behind OBL. They certainly aren't onboard with us.