Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.
I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.
He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.
To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.
If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.
And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.
Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.
This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?
There also appears to be a strong contingent in DC that wants to just get back to business as usual. they seem to think that we dropped some bombs so we should now just end it. Thus they float that tired old bogeyman some "Right Wing Nuts" are doing the Anthrax. The fact is that such an explanation does not even come close to passing the smell test. (puns intended)
We need to nuke somebody if one of the two above attacks occurs, and Bagdad's annhialation would serve as our last warning to the rest of Islam.
IMHO we are already at that time where we need to nuke someone becuase the bio-warfare threshold was crossed. Bagdad makes a whole lot of sense for this and it would serve well as a lesson to others. However, if we as a nation wait for a million, ten million or twenty million dead that option may well not be enough to save us.
As to China I am certain OBL has factored them and Russia into his plans. There is a whole lot of uncomfortable history there for him to deal with and they are geographically a whole lot closer than the USA. Short term I am certain he will not go out of his way to antagonize China. russia is having its problems with Chechneya which is directly tied to OBL.
As you say he is playing a game of chess.
Stay well - Stay safe - stay armed - Yorktown
I am certain it won't be written in Arabic, less certain it will not be written in chalk on a ruined wall.
Thanx too for demonstrating proper use of hyphenation (anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs). My technical writing instructor would be proud of you.
Given his history he will not set off a nuke on a ship at sea. He would most assuredly pick a target that would do much more harm to his enemies.
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
YES!!!!!
Lucky guess by me on the time-fused anti-helicopter air-bursting RPG thing.
This is war! Bomb them and be done with it!
I think our retaliatory nuke needs to put a crater where the black meteorite is.
Would they continue to pray at the edge of a crater, or would the crater puncture the mohammed myth once and for all?
I hope you are correct about those so called soccer moms. already with our news media focusing on the poor Afgan children wounded by our evil bombs I am not as confident. Maybe it is because I live in CT where the Liberals have ruled too long.
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - yorktown
Afghanistan has special significance to the world of militant Islam. It was once called Khurasan, along with parts of Iran and Pakistan. Muhammad said: "If you see the black flags coming from Khurasan, join that army, even if you have to crawl over ice, for that is the army of the Imam al-Mahdi and no one can stop that army until it reaches Jerusalem." That is one reason Osama bin Laden chose it as his base, or al-Qaida.
The fundamentalists in the Muslim world are waiting for the prophecy of Muhammad to be fulfilled. Muslims will come and fight because Khurasan (Afghanistan) cannot fall. Whether Shi'a or Sunni, just as certain millennial Christians await the coming of Christ the Muslim world of a certain bent believes it is on the verge of the return of the a precursor of the end times, and that is Imam al-Mahdi.
The Muslims believe the angels of God ("2,000 and 5,000") will come to fight alongside them. The mujahideen read the Qur'an and purify themselves for death before battle. Every time they see the enemy, they see heaven.
I have excerpted some of the relevant portions.
Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
Agreed as a small start.
Would they continue to pray at the edge of a crater, or would the crater puncture the mohammed myth once and for all?
What Muslim's would be left to pray at the edge of that crater and why concievably would we let any of the couple hundred survivors anywhere near our oil?
Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - yorktown
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