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Will Osama Appear In Pakistan?
Travis McGee | October 25, 2001 | Travis McGee

Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee

I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.

I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.

He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.

To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.

Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.

If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.

And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.

Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.

This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?


TOPICS: Announcements; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: talibanlist
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To: Travis McGee
His double will have to be 6'5"; isn't that hard to come by in that region? If we take him out - no trial - pig entrails have to be thrown all over him. Seems to me that would take care of the prophecy, no?
81 posted on 10/25/2001 11:08:44 AM PDT by EastCoast
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To: Travis McGee
I think that the strategic thinkers are moving (in the background) towards a Blame Bagdad strategy. (You can see how we are narrowing the anthrax source down to them.)

There also appears to be a strong contingent in DC that wants to just get back to business as usual. they seem to think that we dropped some bombs so we should now just end it. Thus they float that tired old bogeyman some "Right Wing Nuts" are doing the Anthrax. The fact is that such an explanation does not even come close to passing the smell test. (puns intended)

We need to nuke somebody if one of the two above attacks occurs, and Bagdad's annhialation would serve as our last warning to the rest of Islam.

IMHO we are already at that time where we need to nuke someone becuase the bio-warfare threshold was crossed. Bagdad makes a whole lot of sense for this and it would serve well as a lesson to others. However, if we as a nation wait for a million, ten million or twenty million dead that option may well not be enough to save us.

As to China I am certain OBL has factored them and Russia into his plans. There is a whole lot of uncomfortable history there for him to deal with and they are geographically a whole lot closer than the USA. Short term I am certain he will not go out of his way to antagonize China. russia is having its problems with Chechneya which is directly tied to OBL.

As you say he is playing a game of chess.

Stay well - Stay safe - stay armed - Yorktown

82 posted on 10/25/2001 11:10:24 AM PDT by harpseal
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To: EastCoast
Standing on a balcony behind a railing, or riding in an SUV, his double could be 5'9" and standing or sitting on a prop.
83 posted on 10/25/2001 11:12:39 AM PDT by Travis McGee
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To: Travis McGee
I don't think the whole "surrounded by children" argument is going to fly-- too many American mothers (like myself) believe that either our children will die or theirs will, and when you put it like that, the answer has to be theirs. There's always all this talk about soft-hearted "soccer Moms", but we're being underestimated. The most dangerous bear is the momma bear protecting her cubs.
84 posted on 10/25/2001 11:15:00 AM PDT by walden
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To: harpseal
Sometimes I wish that I had a copy of a 2010 history book, but most times I am glad I don't.

I am certain it won't be written in Arabic, less certain it will not be written in chalk on a ruined wall.

85 posted on 10/25/2001 11:15:38 AM PDT by Travis McGee
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To: Travis McGee
Thanx for the thought-provoking vanity. What makes it tough to poo-poo your scenario is that nobody can puzzle out the dynamic of the inherent instability in the region. As long as Osama retains the initiative he has this dynamic as his ally. Combine this with the centuries-long political instability in the region and you've got quite a boiling cauldron.

Thanx too for demonstrating proper use of hyphenation (anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs). My technical writing instructor would be proud of you.

86 posted on 10/25/2001 11:16:28 AM PDT by FirstFlaBn
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To: Travis McGee
With the nukes, he can set off a demo on a ship at sea, or anywhere else. After the demo, world shipping trade will cease from the fear of a ship secreted Islamic nukes, or only continue on their terms.

Given his history he will not set off a nuke on a ship at sea. He would most assuredly pick a target that would do much more harm to his enemies.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

87 posted on 10/25/2001 11:17:03 AM PDT by harpseal
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To: walden
I hope that when it comes to that point we are strong enough to acept what must be done to survive. I have my doubts.
88 posted on 10/25/2001 11:17:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
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To: Travis McGee
Personally, I think we've already seen one of his doubles, with him wrapped in a cloth to cover all but his eyes standing behind the double alongside of Osama's #1 man who is short but with whom height can be manipulated better than the double's height. I would wager there are fifty suitable Saudis that could double, even with minor cosmetic surgery. The eyes are the key and the actual shape and folds of the ears.
89 posted on 10/25/2001 11:19:34 AM PDT by MHGinTN
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To: FirstFlaBn
As long as Osama retains the initiative he has this dynamic as his ally.

YES!!!!!

Lucky guess by me on the time-fused anti-helicopter air-bursting RPG thing.

90 posted on 10/25/2001 11:19:51 AM PDT by Travis McGee
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To: dead
No resident over there is gonna kill Osama or turn him in - unless there is a CIA Blackbird around the corner to wisk him (and his whole immediate & extended family)to Butttuck, So. Dakota under the Witness Relocation Act. Somethings money just can't buy.
91 posted on 10/25/2001 11:21:26 AM PDT by pollwatcher
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To: Sabertooth
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket.

This is war! Bomb them and be done with it!

92 posted on 10/25/2001 11:22:01 AM PDT by Victoria Delsoul
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Comment #93 Removed by Moderator

To: harpseal
If OBL's demo nuke went off in a ship entering Long Beach, what would our response be? Who would we retaliate against? Islamabad? Even if OBL was elsewhere?

I think our retaliatory nuke needs to put a crater where the black meteorite is.

Would they continue to pray at the edge of a crater, or would the crater puncture the mohammed myth once and for all?

94 posted on 10/25/2001 11:24:47 AM PDT by Travis McGee
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To: Travis McGee
One problem with this scenario....India has a death wish to kill off Pakistan....and if the nukes are in his hands...or some other idiot extreme....then they will cut loose and dump nukes all over Pakistan. This is what the Pakistan military is trying to avoid. The intel folks in Pakistan may be pro-Taliban....but the rest of the military are neutral....and nobody wants an out-and-out war with India.
96 posted on 10/25/2001 11:26:34 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: walden
I don't think the whole "surrounded by children" argument is going to fly-- too many American mothers (like myself) believe that either our children will die or theirs will, and when you put it like that, the answer has to be theirs. There's always all this talk about soft-hearted "soccer Moms", but we're being underestimated. The most dangerous bear is the momma bear protecting her cubs.

I hope you are correct about those so called soccer moms. already with our news media focusing on the poor Afgan children wounded by our evil bombs I am not as confident. Maybe it is because I live in CT where the Liberals have ruled too long.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - yorktown

97 posted on 10/25/2001 11:28:33 AM PDT by harpseal
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To: Travis McGee; Sabertooth; Manny Festo; The Shrew; walden
This article HISTORY IS THE ROOT CAUSE OF EVERYTHING has some interesting documentaion on some of the myth and history of Islam.

Afghanistan has special significance to the world of militant Islam. It was once called Khurasan, along with parts of Iran and Pakistan. Muhammad said: "If you see the black flags coming from Khurasan, join that army, even if you have to crawl over ice, for that is the army of the Imam al-Mahdi and no one can stop that army until it reaches Jerusalem." That is one reason Osama bin Laden chose it as his base, or al-Qaida.

The fundamentalists in the Muslim world are waiting for the prophecy of Muhammad to be fulfilled. Muslims will come and fight because Khurasan (Afghanistan) cannot fall. Whether Shi'a or Sunni, just as certain millennial Christians await the coming of Christ the Muslim world of a certain bent believes it is on the verge of the return of the a precursor of the end times, and that is Imam al-Mahdi.

The Muslims believe the angels of God ("2,000 and 5,000") will come to fight alongside them. The mujahideen read the Qur'an and purify themselves for death before battle. Every time they see the enemy, they see heaven.

I have excerpted some of the relevant portions.

Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

98 posted on 10/25/2001 11:43:18 AM PDT by harpseal
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To: Travis McGee
I think our retaliatory nuke needs to put a crater where the black meteorite is.

Agreed as a small start.

Would they continue to pray at the edge of a crater, or would the crater puncture the mohammed myth once and for all?

What Muslim's would be left to pray at the edge of that crater and why concievably would we let any of the couple hundred survivors anywhere near our oil?

Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - yorktown

99 posted on 10/25/2001 11:48:07 AM PDT by harpseal
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Comment #100 Removed by Moderator


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