Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.
I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.
He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.
To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.
If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.
And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.
Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.
This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?
Exactly. I pray it doesn't happen but if we put troops on the ground, it will. I don't see how we can win this any other way. If it happens we'll have two choices: chicken out by listening to the nosebleeds who tell us we must "understand" the enemy, or annihilate the s.o.b.'s.
No Americans would be put at risk of capture and torture, yet the Taliban and Al Qaida leadership would live in dread of every journey out of doors. No terrorist training camp could ever reopen, the leaders would live in hiding in a virtual state of siege, waiting for a Hellfire missile with their name on it.
To support this operation, I would sieze one good sized airfield inside Afghanistan located on a defensible plain. Any attacks on this airfield would be easily brushed off.
Don't put troops on the ground in difficult terrain, let the remotely controlled missile equipped drones do the seeking and killing.
Since the attack drones will cost several million dollars each, build twenty decoy drones for each real model. These can be built to a smaller scale, run on lawnmower engines, and fly a predetermined course via GPS. Any of these under $10,000 drones shot down will only cost the enemy valuable AA resources, and bring the real killer drones in for a close look. Pretty soon, the enemy will stop shooting at any drones, and they will rule the sky, able to loiter at low altitude right over the terrorists lairs, sending back imagery.
The lessons of history, Khomenei in Iran, Hitler, Bonaparte, etc. suggest the former will likely be the case with OBL
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
#35: Bin Laden's cave network possible, miners say To: All
Osama is probably not even in Afghanistan. He's probably sitting in a nice safehouse in Peshwara in the Northwest territories of Pakistan. Lots of supporters there, and all the amenities. He has plenty of sympathizers in the Paki intelligence service too. It would be easy for him to ride out the winter, and any US attack in comfort. That guy aint hiding in no flea ridden cave.
35 posted on 10/6/01 4:11 PM Central by Zorobabel [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]
That's the concept exactly. The robots can also kill the terrorist leaders who get out and about.
(Of course they are not really robots, but tools, the human pilots are just not in the airplanes but back at base drinking coffee.)
Their advantage is that they are small and get close, and if shot down or crashed do not require a massive risky "Blackhawk Down" rescue attempt, and cannot be tortured to death on video.
Kinda deflates the mystique of the "right stuff", but there really is no good reason to put a guy in the plane with that capabiity. NASA has coined the word telepresence to describe those kinds of systems. The next steps beyond that are the film fantasy robot combatants of Star Wars or Schwarzeneggar look alike Terminators.
Robots which decide when to fire the weapon, I have a big problem with that.
The flag reads: "There is no God but God and Mohammed is the messenger of God."
Muhammad said: "If you see the black flags coming from Khurasan (Afghanistan),
join that army, even if you have to crawl over ice,
for that is the army of the Imam al-Mahdi
and no one can stop that army until it reaches Jerusalem."
You posted elsewhere to harpseal that the over age vets may get another chance. Don't forget those of us to whom Uncle Sam said on several occasions:"thanks, but no".
I remember a few weeks ago someone mentioned the part of the video where the jihadists burst into the room and shoot the sillhouettes with the Christian crosses on them, and pretty quickly someone posted a video still of it.
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