Will Osama Appear In Pakistan?

Travis McGee | October 25, 2001 | Travis McGee

[Travis McGee]

I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.

I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.

He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.

To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.

Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.

If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.

And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.

Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.

This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?

[Andrew Byler]

You have the solution to the whole problem in a nutshell. 2 nukes (one on Mecca, the other on Medina), and 1 large explosion in the Al Asqa Mosque would do wonders in crippling the Islamic world.

[Andrew Byler]

Make that a "head wound" and you and Travis have just written the emergence of the Anti-Christ.

Did you know that the Anti-Christ is supposed to come from Persia (Iran and Afghanistan and western Pakistan are traditionally thought of as Persia, or Khurusan by the Imam Mahdi prophecy)? Various Catholic prophecies speak of this.

[Travis McGee]

The notion that Osama could suddenly appear in Karachi, proclaim himself Mahdi, and trigger a revolution is fantasy.

I hope you're right.

But I suspect that most of the Pakistani police and army would turn their guns on Musharraf before they would arrest OBL.

Think Shah and Ayatollah, circa 1979. Who was arrested, who fled, and who took over the country?

[colorado tanker]

Baluchistan is where Alexander the Great's army almost perished, because there is no food, no water, no population and nothing of value there.

Former Pak PM Bhutto has said repeatedly and recently that if Punjab remains quiet the Pak government is secure. Punjab is the source of the population, the economy, the power elites and the army. I have seen no evidence of any movement of any importance in Punjab to try to overthrow Mussharaf in favor of Bin Laden.

There is widespread sympathy for Bin Laden and dislike for America in the muslim world, but translating those feelings into a revolutionary movement to overthrow their indiginous governments is quite another issue, for which I have seen almost no evidence.

[Travis McGee]

Whoa! Pretty scary stuff in that link!

"On the Day of Judgment, Allah will not question ye as to why you didn't go to university, or why you didn't land that nice $80,000 job at Microsoft or IBM or whatever. But he WILL ask ye about how you spent your youth. He will ask ye why you didn't go for Jihad. As the Rasulallah said: "Anyone who dies without having fought or without having the sincere intention to fight, will die on a branch on munafiqaat." Do not fool yourselves brothers, by always putting off leaving for Jihad, thinking you have the sincere desire to go fight, but Allah knows best, you may die in a car accident or something, before you ever get to materialize your intention. It is not necessary to finish studying for that Bachelors or masters, etc. The Shariah age for fighting is 15. FIFTEEN. I'm sure you are all WAY past the age of 15."

These Jihadists are HERE folks, they are RIGHT HERE, waiting for orders from the Mahdi they believe is coming out of Afghanisan. Read the link!

[Travis McGee]

Does the mohammed mythology depend on a belief in their god's absolute power such that if his magic totem the black Kaba rock was turned into a crater, the entire insane death cult might evaporate, having been proved impotent?

Or would the Jihadists just go doubly berserk?

[colorado tanker]

I hope I'm right too, not that I've ever been wrong, mind you!

I don't see the kind of activity in Pakistan that preceded the revolution in Iran. There was a mass revolutionary movement, led by the clerics, in Iran. The Shah had lost the loyalty of the middle class also. Nothing like that exists in Pakistan today. Although I don't see it today, a movement like that could appear in Saudi Arabia if the oil money/welfare paid to keep the people quiet keeps diminishing.

I think, however, that most muslim political leaders suspect Bin Laden of ambitions to proclaim himself Mahdi or Caliph, which is why to a man (OK, Saddam excepted) they don't seem to mind that we're out to kill him.

[AGAviator]

There is widespread sympathy for Bin Laden and dislike for America in the muslim world, but translating those feelings into a revolutionary movement to overthrow their indiginous governments is quite another issue, for which I have seen almost no evidence

That's the way I see things, some Internet articles notwithstanding. The support in Quetta, which is growing as the result of the bombing, can complicate matters for the US military, however.

[AGAviator]

Travis, somehow we're going to muddle through this one too.

As for jihadists taking over America, no way. The Hispanics will never let it happen.

[Travis McGee]

I wish there were neat alternatives which would deliver OBL and all of his henchmen tied up in ribbons, but I don't see any.

We are well into this dance of death which THEY started on 9-11, and the song is far from over.

[AGAviator]

This too shall pass.

[colorado tanker]

I agree. You know, Baluchistan is only tenously connected to Pakistan, and was attached to Punjab and Sind by the British. I suspect one motive for Pakistan wanting to include some Taliban factions in the next government is to try to head off a civil war in Afghanistan after the present Taliban government is deposed.

[colorado tanker]

The Pakistanis and Indians I know would take the $80K and the stock options and leave the jihad to someone else!

[AGAviator]

That's the only reason Pakistan ever supported the Taliban. In the early '90's they supported an anti-American fundamentalist named Gulbuddin Hikmatyar, who was part of Massoud's coalition government in Kabul. The Taliban came out of the south and started fighting with Hikmatyar. It was only after they looked like winners that Pakistan started supporting them. They simply don't want problems on both sides of their country, as they have enough problems with India.

[Travis McGee]

This too shall pass.

Agreed.

But will millions of Americans die resisting the Jihad?

[AM2000]

If you see the black flags coming from Khurasan, join that army ... no one can stop that army until it reaches Jerusalem.

Which means it can be stopped afterward?

[colorado tanker]

Agreed! Say, isn't Hikmatyar still around in Iran or near the Iranian border? What a country full of kooks.

[AGAviator]

I still maintain what Colorado Tanker says, that there is identification but not a willingness to actually go out themselves. Take the guy posting on the Internet, for example. Has he practiced what he preaches?

[witnesstothefall]

I doubt strongly that Osama will 'retreat' to Pak.

Pervez Musharraf's massive security forces would be forced to go after Osama or risk the wrath of the West, throwing Pakistan into a choice between civil war or war against the West. Either one would directly threaten the continued existence of the Muslim Bomb (Pak's nukes) and also the Jammu & Kashmir incursion, which is dearer to Pak hearts than even Afghanistan. Osama knows all this and I cannot imagine Osama knowingly becoming the agent of Pak's demise.

As the General himself said the night he announced he was agreeing to Bush's demands: "Pakistan is a fort of Islam," and its dissolution cannot be chanced.

[copycat]

I think he's been out of Afghanistan for some time now. He probably won't be too popular with the new governement there.