[wretchard]

Once you accept the assumption that nuclear weapons are in private hands, and that the knowledge of how to develop a genetically modified doomsday bug will shortly follow, then it follows that we are in a mathematically chaotic situation. The object of national defense must be to restore a modicum of linearity.

The most destablizing variables in the current crisis are the proliferation of formerly esoteric knowledge and the uncertainty of human motivation. For example, any concern over the Pakistani nuclear weapons is totally misplaced: it is the Pakistani scientists, the knowledge in their heads and the motives in their hearts that we should be worried about. The Rangers can grab every islamic bomb in existence, but it will be pointless. They will simply make more.

If we are to return to a linear situation where outcomes are predictable, it will be necessary either to simplify the present or plan for a recovery after the inevitable crash. Trying to simplify the present implies reducing the population, lessening cultural diversity and strictly limiting technology. This is impossible to achieve.

Planning to recover from a crash means implementing a Noah's Ark strategy in which key items are preserved for the post-crash world (or post apocalyptic world, if you will) which will return to a form of stability in a manner that no one can predict.

[Movemout]

Yours is a very erudite analysis. What is in the mind of an enemy cannot be erased, however, the sophisticated hardware required to mill the payload can be denied through various means, including force. I don't know that even forceful means can put the genie back in the bottle but we will try, it seems. As I said before, the world has changed.

[Don Joe]

You don't paint a pretty picture, but it certainly seems accurate.

[shezza]

For more info on Russian capabilities, take a gander at this little tidbit:
Biological Weapons