Posted on 10/16/2001 2:07:36 PM PDT by TheOtherOne
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| The FBI released this photo on October 16, 2001 showing the letters that were sent to NBC in New York and to Sen. Tom Daschle's office on Capitol Hill and were found to contain the anthrax bacteria. Anthrax was confirmed in the letter opened on October 15 in Daschle's office, but so far none of the staff in that office has tested positive for exposure to the potentially deadly bacteria, Capitol police said. REUTERS/HO/Fbi |
I understand, but the facts do not lead to the inferences you drew from them. I was only making that clear.
I'm sorry if you took offense from that. It wasn't my intent. I'm only concerned that people may take the things you posted as more meaningful than they were. AlamoGirl may have only been polite, but I did get the impression she might have done that.
You should participate and share your thoughts on this. I'd just suggest that you not try to infer too much. For example, you might say the lettering looks like a NJ student's, but to say the writer was a NJ student goes too far.
A Compilation of Evidence and Comments on the Source of the Mailed Anthrax
Barbara Hatch Rosenberg, 12 Nov 01
1. ANTHRAX STRAIN
--All letter samples are the same, and correspond to AMES in the N. Arizona State University database (which has been used for identification). That Ames sample was obtained from Porton Down (UK) in the mid-90's (the sample was marked "October 1932"); Porton had gotten it from USAMRIID.
--Many anthrax strains were isolated by labs in Ames, Iowa starting with one in 1928. There is much confusion about who has which sub-strain or which one is meant by "Ames."
--A 2000 paper by M. Hugh-Jones, PJ Jackson, P. Keim et al says that the Ames strain played a central role in the US BW program. Hugh-Jones says he learned that from David Huxsoll (Former Commander, USAMRIID). He also says Vollum 1B was the strain stockpiled.
--USAMRIID claims to have obtained the "Ames" strain around 1980 from the USDA lab in Ames, Iowa. They don't know when it was isolated. They did transfer the strain to Porton in the '80s. They claim have no information about the Ames strain prior to 1980.
--The Ames strain is highly virulent and is used now in the US biodefense program for testing vaccines etc.
--The Ames strain recurred in nature in 1997 on a Texas goat farm.
2. WEAPONIZATION
--The form in the senate letter: fine particles, very narrow size range (1.5-3 microns diameter), treated so it won't clump and will float.
--An ABC reporter who writes on anthrax vaccine has privately confirmed that four labs have told him that under the electron microscope the sample looks just like material obtained by UNSCOM in Iraq. The Iraqi material was spray-dried BT. I have been told that such particles are distinguishable from milled particles. The US process did not use milling.
--The senate sample contains silica, a drying agent used in the US process, and not bentonite (used by the Iraqis)
--The US weaponization process is secretBill Patrick, its inventor, says it involves a COMBINATION of chemicals. Therefore, further analysis should be able to determine whether or not the process used to make the letter anthrax was identical to the US secret process.
All the available information is consistent with a US government lab as the source, either of the anthrax itself or of the recipe for the US weaponization process.
3. TESTS IN PROGRESS?
A study of genetic drift at certain locations in anthrax is said to be underway at Northern Arizona State Univ. This will give an idea of how many times the letter anthrax replicated, in comparison to the reference strainie, whether it was grown on a very large scale (as in a State program) or on a very small scale, as would be likely if recently made by a terrorist.
--Analysis of trace contaminants could be used to determine the method of production.
--Senator Bob Graham, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said that 30-40 labs in US and perhaps 100 worldwide could have produced the anthrax mailed Daschle. Investigators can identify with great certainty which lab produced the anthrax, Graham said, but it will be a laborious, time-consuming process. (Chicago Tribune, 27 Oct 01).
4. LETTER ANALYSIS
--Analysts believe the letters were not written by a Middle-Easterner. The FBI now conjectures that the perpetrator was a lone domestic terrorist (obviously one with a scientific background and lab experience who could handle hazardous materials).
5. TIMING
--There was only 1 week between 11 Sept and Sept. 18th, when the first two letters (and probably a letter, never found, to AMI) were postmarked. This suggests that the anthrax was already in hand before Sept 11.
--Did the perpetrator have advance knowledge of the Sept 11 attacks? Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has said that he does not believe al Qaeda was responsible for the anthrax attack, and other public officials have increasingly indicated that the perpetrator was probably domestic.
6. PUBLIC STATEMENTS
-- AT FIRST, US officials provided miscellaneous bits of information, some conflicting; then denied some of the earlier information, then clammed up. Chances are they know more than they want to say. They are clearly concentrating on domestic investigations, however (the US even rejected a UN resolution condemning the anthrax attack, on the grounds that it might have been domestic terrorism).
--The Secretary of Health and Human Services said that some of the relevant information is classified, and some is restricted by the FBI.
7. SPECULATION
--The perpetrator was not only an American scientist but one with access to US weaponized anthrax or one who had been taught by an expert how to make it.
>--An astute observer has pointed out that the letters warned of anthrax or the need to take antibiotics, making it possible for those who handled the letters to protect themselves; and that it seems unlikely that the perpetrator would have anticipated that the rough treatment of mail in letter sorters etc, would force anthrax spores through the pores of the envelopes (which were taped to keep the anthrax inside) and infect postal workers. It is therefore possible that the perpetrator's goal was not necessarily to kill but to create public fear, in order to raise the profile of BW for some reason, and that he simply took advantage of Sept 11 to throw suspicion elsewhere.
MORE DETAILED SPECULATION
1. The perpetrator was a microbiologist who had, or once had, access to weaponized anthrax in a US government lab. Perhaps he had a vial or two in his basement as a keepsake. He does not necessarily live in or near Trenton! Trenton is a stop on the Amtrack line that runs along the East coast. If he is smart enough to handle anthrax he is smart enough not to mail it from his home town.
2. The letter anthrax was made and weaponized in a US government lab, either before Nixon terminated the US BW program in 1969, or later, for biodefense purposes.
--If the sample was made before 1969, then the Ames reference strain in the N. Arizona collection (which matches the letter sample) would have to be an early Ames substrain, probably 1928. Although Vollum was the main strain stockpiled by the US, at least during WWII, it is not unlikely that the search continued for better strains, and that the US BW program later switched to Ames, which is considerably more virulent than Vollum.
--If the letter sample was made more recently it could be a later Ames substrain, eg, 1980. But weaponization of dry anthrax after 1972, when the BWC was signed, could be construed as a violation of the BWC.
3. Clumping: All the letters may have contained the same material. The clumping of the anthrax in the two letters mailed on Sept 18 (to NBC and the NY Post) might have resulted from the letters getting wet in the course of mail processing or delivery, or the perpetrator might have deliberately caused it to clump. In addition, some filler might have been added to those two letters. Analysis has probably already answered these questions and more.
4. The motive of the perpetrator may have been to attract attention to biological weapons as a threat, either to push the US government toward retaliatory action against some enemy or to attract funding and recognition to some agency/company/program/etc. with which he has a connection. The choice of media and the Senate leader as targets fits these motives.
--The perpetrator may not even have intended to kill anyone. The postmark on the Daschle letter is difficult to read. It has been reported as Oct. 8 in one NY Times article and Oct 9 in another. On the FBI website it looks more like 3 or 5 Oct to some observers. It is possible that the perpetrator did not know of the first anthrax case (in Florida), which was first reported at about 4 pm on Oct. 4, when he mailed the last letter (to Daschle).
5. If the US government suspects or knows that the anthrax was an "inside" job, it would probably want to cover it up that politically embarrassing information for the time being and gradually suggest the truth, as seems to be happening.
Barbara Hatch Rosenberg, PhD Natural Sciences
A lot of us who are short on time would really like to have a one or two sentence quick summary of that long and detailed 1,393-word essay you just posted so we can decide if it's worth the time reading. :)
To me, each opinion is like a pixel. When they are all organized and laid out alongside one another, sometimes a picture will emerge. That's what I'm hoping for!!!
Please see my replies #247 and #269 and kcvl's reply #248.
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