Lesson One about Iraq is that there is no such ethnic group as Iraqis. They are a number of ethinc groups—(1)Kurds in the north around Mosul and Kirkuk, (2)Persians on the east side of the Tigris River to approximately Al Kut, (3)Their religious kin the Shiites (many of mixed Arab blood) scattered throughout the country, (4)”Pure” Arabs, and (5)Indigeneous (sometimes called the “marsh people”) people mainly confined to a small arc bordering Kuwait and the confluence of the Tigis and Euphrates Rivers. These are most likely the only “native” Iraqis who can trace their roots to the ancient Babylonian and Assyrian Emprires although the term “native” is relative considering the centuries other groups have lived in what is now Iraq.
Lesson Two is that Iraq is an artificial entity, carved out of the Ottoman Empire as an oil state for the allies. France, who acquired Syria from the defunct Ottoman Empire, also sent their state oil company to develop the fields of Iraq. It was Great Britain, however, that secured the League of Nations mandate until Iraq became an independent monarchy (some would say a puppet state of France) in 1932. The monarchy was overthrown in 1958 and the Baath Party came to power a decade later. Thus, Iraq in its present form has only been around for a third of a century.
Lesson Three is that Iraq’s people has a better future being partitioned along somewhat identifiable ethnic lines among their neighbors—(1)Kurds as a protectorate of Turkey with provisions for future independence, (2)Persians to Iran, (3)Shiite or mixed Arabs either to Syria or as an independent state, (4)Pure Arabs or Sunni to Saudi Arabia, (5)Marsh people to Kuwait. The multi-ethnic Shiite/mixed Arab state would also be a natural home for the Palestinians who couldn’t stand living next to Israel or continued to be dedicated to Israel’s destruction. Jordan could also send their malcontents to this state. It would have few of present-day Iraq’s oil resources, but most of their population and agricultural resources. It would be possible to coax a living from the desert soil with the two rivers as irrigation, but less possible to engage in military adventures as Saddam has done with his greater resources of oil revenue.
Most of the oil fields would go to the Kurds, the marsh people and the ethnic Persians. The Kurdswould then have leverage for eventual autonomy from the Turks (if they could quit killing each other long enough). The marsh people would provide agriculture and labor for a willing market among the Kuwaitis and have oil resources of their own as leverage to ensure decent treatment after years of environmental despoliation by Iraq. The ethnic Persians could join their cousins in Iran, essentially being rewarded for being in the cross-fire during the decade long Iran-Iraq War.