It's tough to evaluate the Surgeon General's claims from a newspaper article, which of course offers no detailed explanation, much less the actual data or statistical arguments the claims are based on. I suppose we could obtain the original paper or papers detailing the research. But my own knowledge of biostatistics is a bit sketchy. As a scientist, I'm inclined to respect peer-reviewed research by workers in other disciplines.
For decades the figure has been set at about 7 years.
I recall reading some years ago that the loss of life expectancy for one-pack-a-day smokers is 6 years but for two-pack-a-day smokers, it's 20 years. I don't know what fraction of smokers smoke one pack a day, or some two packs a day.
Anyway, I'm sorry if I sound like an anti-smoking Nazi. I don't smoke but I hang around with friends and colleagues who do (in the local brew-pub up the street). But I do support public health efforts to discourage kids from smoking.
I agree with you. The problem with most of the anti-smoker stuff is that it is rarely peer-reviewed before the press releases and the ensuing headlines show up.
I'm sorry to sound so cynical, but I have seen so many of these studies, the conclusions of which state they show no statistically significant results, be blown up in headlines declaring they are the definitive proof.
I'm no scientist, nor am I an expert on statistics or epidemiology, yet I have made a point of studying both in recent years because of this particular subject.
But it doesn't take a media, PR, or political expert to see most of this stuff is just that - stuff. I am not an expert, but I have spent the past 20 years in media, PR and politics.
But I do support public health efforts to discourage kids from smoking.
I don't know anyone that doesn't, including myself. However, telling kids lies is not the way to go about it.....kids aren't stupid and they see through the lies.
My 20 year old niece is a former anti-smoker.....she doesn't smoke, and would rather not be around it, but she got disgusted with the propaganda she was getting fed in HS. A friend of mine's (then) 9 year old daughter came home from school one day and informed her father there were dead rats in his cigarettes and that he was a child abuser because he smoked. She was taught this in school.
Keeping kids from smoking is one thing, lying to them is another.
I'm sorry for my long-winded rant.