[Jhoffa_]

Wonder how Iraqi oil will change the Saudi equasion and opec?

[Poohbah]

Wonder how Iraqi oil will change the Saudi equasion and opec?

"Here, Sheikh Yamani, stand over here on this rug while we yank it out from under you."

[Mr. Thorne]

I think (and have long held the opinion) that you've hit the nail on the head.

That is, a democratic (or nearly so) Iraq, either for us, or, at least, NOT against us, might indeed change the balance of things.

This country will hold the second largest oil reserve in the world; suddenly, the LARGEST oil reserve might not have the political pull that it used to. Mayhap a delicate diplomat will reiterate the Bush Doctrine, and pose some questions about Wahhabiism, and the nationality of, what? three quarters of the 9/11 hijackers?

Oh, and along the way, several other notable countries might take note that if you piss us off enough, we WILL kill you.

Maybe, maybe not. But it should be interesting, regardless.

[traditionalist]

Wonder how Iraqi oil will change the Saudi equasion and opec?

Saudi Arabia still controls about 30% of the world's known oil reserves, so even if we get Iraq pumping at full capacity (which won't happen for a couple years), taking Saudi oil off the market would send prices skyrocketing.

The way I see it, there're only two ways to reduce Saudi geopolitical importance:

1) Explore, explore, and explore some more until the Saudis account for a small portion of exploitable world oil, something like 5%.

2) Reduce dependence on oil from any source. Merely reducing the amount we buy from the Saudis won't help as long as the Saudis continue such a huge market share. Oil is a highly fungible commodity and the market is highly liquid. Therefore a large reduction in oil output, even if limited to a supplier from whom we do not buy, will have a large impact on the price.