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Latest CBS/NYT poll for New Hampshire.

Mitt Romney, 34 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 16 percent
John McCain, 16 percent
Ron Paul, 8 percent
Mike Huckabee, 6 percent
Fred Thompson, 5 percent

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5juburdSSdigTLtmCg6Ez87e67L_gD8ST6UVO0

Honest prediction? Romney may win it, although with up to 60% of Republicans in the state undecided that's not a guarantee. Giuliani has shot himself in the foot with the latest scandal and will continue to do so (especially at the debate). He's not done for yet but he's working on it. McCain may have enough money to get through to NH but he's broke. Ooops that leaves the person currently in 4th place heavy on the rise and after Teaparty07 will be even more well known nationwide.

Fred will fall asleep or wander off the stage (I have no idea why he even bothered running) and Hucklebee's anti-smoking, pro-immigration, pro-tax past will catch up with him. Tom Tancredo (especially after that ad) and Duncan Hunter (Duncan who?) can perhaps rub the three votes they get together...

McCain's trying to borrow $3M to stay in the race. If Huck comes up in Iowa, he pulls Romney's numbers down, therefore magnifying the #3 ticket out of Iowa.

When Tancredo drops out, his supporters will go to Ron Paul, at least in NH. They're already planning it. No indication whether Tanc will endorse RP or whether RP's campaign would really seek it.

Fred will fall asleep or wander off the stage (I have no idea why he even bothered running)

I like Fred okay. But I keep complaining about his campaign. So today he gets the biggest so-con endorsement from Right To Life. And the coverage showed him with one drab room with 30 kind of bored looking supporters, then there was another shot where he was with maybe 50 people (if that) and then he was riding around in a mini-van looking like he was ready for a nap. Now, maybe I'm being too tough but, seriously, when you get a nomination that HUGE, shouldn't you pull out the stops and hit a church or organize several large churches (say Falwell's church in combo with a couple big Catholic churches) and throw yourself a big campaign rally? That just seems to squander the media splash that his campaign needs. You'd think his campaign and RTL would have coordinated to flex their muscle together.

If RTL had given Ron Paul the endorsement, he could have assembled at least 700 people on one day's notice for a big rally.

Maybe Fred can pull it off and there is hidden strength there. But I keep noticing that his numbers decline in states where he's campaigned. That's not at all good. Maybe there's some huge GOP bloc of support for him out there or the libmedia is just suppressing all his coverage and spiking his polls but you'd think there would be more signs of strength. At this point, I'm starting to think that Mitt may be the plausible anti-Rudy. I guess it's still early though.