Posted on 11/03/2010 10:15:41 AM PDT by Alex Murphy
You first.
I've already started and you found fault with it and gave the figure of at least 25 million, give us a credible source for that.
Do something to show that you aren't just making up nonsense.
Your numbers are nonsense. Source them.
Everyone is already aware of the numbers, even you, since you attributed them to government sources that you don’t like, what you cannot do is give the evidence to support that wild, grabbed out of the figure of more than doubling the actual numbers, and claiming more than 25 million.
My, my. Leftist propaganda as tautology.
Come on, man, gimme a reference. Immigration numbers aren't genetic.
You yourself recognized the 11.6 million figure in that graph, and you described it as government figures from the years of Bush and Obama, and that to you they are false and that you claim it is more than double the government figures, in your mind the figure is greater than 25 million, (in your mind).
Do a little web research. Get back to me when you've nailed it all down.
My number is accurate, and maybe low.
September,2010 Pew Research Center
U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Flows Are Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade
The annual inflow of unauthorized immigrants to the United States was nearly two-thirds smaller in the March 2007 to March 2009 period than it had been from March 2000 to March 2005, according to new estimates by the Pew Hispanic Center.
This sharp decline has contributed to an overall reduction of 8% in the number of unauthorized immigrants currently living in the U.S.-to 11.1 million in March 2009 from a peak of 12 million in March 2007, according to the estimates. The decrease represents the first significant reversal in the growth of this population over the past two decades.
http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=126
256 posted on Tuesday, November 02, 2010 1:06:05 PM by ansel12
The Famous Bear Stearns Study, now 5 years old. Conclusion: illegals > 20 million. They even found that illegals held 15 million jobs in the U.S., and even conservative assumptions about family size would add 5 - 10 million to that -- and that was five years ago!
Wikipedia review including Bear Stearns and Pew. Here they quantify the Bear Stearns number at 20-22 million. Still low.
The population activist Fred Elbel arrives at a number well over 20 million, and that was 4 years ago. His methods and numbers are sound, and the Border Patrol numbers agree.
The number you recite uses the "Residual Method", which has serious flaws: Reasonable critique here.
There are many other methods, the Bear Stearns study being the more well known. But simple arithmetic and reasonable assumptions should tell you the story: it's not just half a million a year net. More like 3 to 6 times that: 1.7 million apprehensions a year. Assume - conservatively - that they get 1 in 3. That means a residual of 5.1 million. OK! Too high for ya? Say 50% apprehension rate. Then it's 2.55 million. That's 25 million in 10 years, starting from ZERO.
Lots of ways to dice those numbers. But the reality is that the Pew numbers are nonsense, and the real numbers are far higher. Many studies have concluded just that.
It's north of 22-25 million. Easy.
Bear Stearns is not even around anymore, and they are an odd source for the illegal population in America, they are not a credible source. I figured that you would not accept any valid sources, from Pew to the Federal agencies, and I was right.
As for the "federal government", do you consider the Border Patrol to be a municipal police agency? The Census numbers are routinely discredited.
Forget it, sport. You're one of their guys, and you engage in conclusionary statements like "valid sources" - according to who? You simply have picked one or two items that suit your prejudice and won't accept any evidence to the contrary.
25 million. Maybe 30.
Yes Pew is a valid source, and it is in line with Federal agency numbers, and any other widely accepted numbers, You still have not posted any valid sources for how many illegals are in the US today.
What's next, Mexican government "data"?
And as far as federal "agency" numbers, those are routinely debunked on this website. Would you be one of those DU trolls? I'd say so. They're in luv with Fedgov. We aren't.
But let's note that what you said is also a falsehood: I posted the Border Patrol apprehension statistics and then used them in a statistically conservative way. Gee, isn't that one of your precious federal agencies?
Maybe you like to pick and choose only data that supports your assumptions!
In which case, you should get a job as a climate change propagandist. Mr. Gore is looking for you!
Fantasy numbers don’t count, when you get some valid numbers for the number of illegals currently in the nation, then post them.
Let us all know when you plan to stop shilling for the Mexican government.
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