[mpreston]

" .... the impact on the world economy would be extreme."

Which is exactly why the Chinese will never invade.

[Elliott Jackalope]

I'm inclined to agree. The only caveat is if China begins to experience extreme internal stress, and looks around for a handy whipping boy / scapegoat to attack in an attempt to relieve that stress. Said effort would probably backfire, but it would buy them some time.

Still, all in all, this strikes me as an unlikely scenario, so your assertation is most likely correct.